The last spot is a toss up between Armored Core and Super Mario Bro’s: Wonder but co-op focused family games tend to not be contenders for GOTY and especially not in years with many strong options.
Personally I think BG3 will take it. It has a lot going for it, western, it’s got a touch of humor and charm which the times call for, part of a legendary franchise that hasn’t seen a new release for a decade+. And on top of that it’s a fantastic game that really is the culmination of the journey western RPGs has been undergoing since BG 2 (I say 2 because that game started the companion focus prevalent across the sub-genre and a massive focus of BG3).
Though in my opinion Tears of the Kingdom is the best game of the year. It just plays so amazingly well.
Alan Wake 2 is the game equivalent to Oscars bait so I wouldn’t be shocked if it won.
Hogwarts Legacy is great and exactly the type of game GOTY favors, but it was released early in the year and is a bit “done” now. It’s also a tad controversial. But it’s not undeserving.
FF XVI is not mainstream enough to have the wide appeal GOTY is all about. You could argue BG3 also doesn’t have the wide appeal of Hogwarts Legacy or Tears of the Kingdom and I’d agree. But that doesn’t change that FF XVI just feels further away from a win than the above games. Another year it very well could’ve won though.
And the bottom spot, Armored Core 6 is a great game. It doesn’t try to be anything else than a game. And in that regard (and that only) it’s similar to the new Mario. It doesn’t advance the medium it just delivers a great gaming experience. Also a game that could’ve won in a weaker year in my opinion.