As far as I’m given to understand from folks who are Russian (but got out of Russia) or Ukrainian, this fellow would more be a change from one strongman to another if he replaced Putin. Apparently his Livejournal has him saying some nasty stuff he hasn’t repudiated. (Unfortunately, I don’t speak or read Russian so I can’t examine the sources myself very well, and machine translation doesn’t bring cultural nuance or context.) (Also, as funny as it sounds to people who remember Livejournal as the first English-speaking major social media for fandom, Livejournal has been the place for years for Russian intellectuals and politicians to say their bit, so it has a different cultural context in Russia than it does elsewhere where it was mainly used for fandom drama.)
It’s been strangely fascinating watching as western media tries to hold him up as some hope, when as far as I can tell when I stop to listen to actual Ukranians or Russians with better cultural knowledge on how Russia works than most western commentators, there’s basically minimal hope he’ll be anything close to a (good) Western-style leader and if he gets into power. (it gets swept under the rug in the west that Russian culture is NOT western european culture and things that are a “given” in European and other western cultures actually are not necessarily established culturally in Russia.)
As far as I understand it, it’ll just be exchanging one dude who’s done obviously terrible things (Putin) for another who probably’s not going to be all that different, and will just do his own brand of bad things. I think perhaps people just hope he’ll be a stable asshole, as opposed to an unstable one as Putin’s become.
Or maybe they just like a scapegoat narrative–it has been fascinating to me that he voluntarily returned to Russia, and it really reminds me that people who aren’t necessarily good can still show courage, and shape narratives that way in their favor. I suspect his actions have motivations underneath that I don’t understand because I don’t understand Russian strongman culture. And I suspect other people interpret his actions through a western lens, without understanding there’s cultural nuance going on that doesn’t align with how a western viewpoint might interpret something, and that’s why western media keeps talking about him so breathlessly.
Someone I read pointed out that in the real world, people are actually largely ok with monarchies and authoritarian rulers so long as the ruler at the top keeps things stable enough for business to be conducted. Ideals like democracy fall by the wayside in light of pragmatism when a nation state is unstable–people crave stability over all, over democracy even, regardless of what method of governance brings it. They will flock to authoritarianism if it promises stability.
And in Russia, the early 90s in the aftermath of the fall of the USSR brought a great deal of instability and hardship along with its “democracy”, so there’s not necessarily a positive feeling towards it as there is in more-functional western nations where it’s been working more or less for decades, as people who lived through the 90s in Russia associate the concept with hardship, not stability. Basically, a good concept implemented like crap can poison the concept in people’s minds for the rest of their life.
So I suspect if Putin is ever ousted, whoever replaces him (whether this guy or another) will be there because people think he can bring stability, not because the successor will actually be a good leader (from a western perspective).
But it’s all operating on a lower level of the “hierarchy of needs” than most people in western countries understand–more concern with base survival, less with being able to flower and thrive. So things might stabilize, but it might still be very bad for people, especially minorities, in Russia, and bad for smaller states if this guy gets into power but also turns his eye to conquering or dominating them in order to garner support.
Anyway. I find it interesting this guy hasn’t yet been executed. Instead they (supposedly) shuffle him off elsewhere. If you were Putin, why not kill him? Must be things going on behind the scenes that we don’t see, or understand, things concerning enough that Putin thinks executing him will be more trouble than it solves.
If Navalny ever comes to power, I don’t have any particular hope he’ll be a “good” leader.
But he has an interesting story, to be sure, and you can’t say he hasn’t been through quite a bit of hardship.
As far as I’m given to understand from folks who are Russian (but got out of Russia) or Ukrainian, this fellow would more be a change from one strongman to another if he replaced Putin
This is the exact thought the majority of anti-Putin crowd had about his political ambitions during his attempt to get elected as Moscow’s mayor in 2013.
Apparently his Livejournal has him saying some nasty stuff he hasn’t repudiated
He did eventually release a controversial statement rebuking his past racist/nationalist remarks. He said he was only hanging around nationalist circles only because it was the only group capable of carrying out a revolution at the time (like Pravy Sektor eventually did in Ukraine). Then he got into some drama with prominent nationalist leaders, and those nationalist leaders got in trouble with the law, so he changed the course to the point that I’d say liverjournal Navalny and youtube Navalny are completely different personalities, as he went much milder there. Though he never did take back his homophobic remarks.
It’s been strangely fascinating watching as western media tries to hold him up as some hope
That’s because he has by far the most followers. The ones within official parties are all corrupt puppets, and the closest not officially registered opponent has spent last few months literally begging the remnants of the Navalny’s team, who did nothing but shit their pants for the last year, to join forces on the next election.
there’s basically minimal hope he’ll be anything close to a (good) Western-style leader and if he gets into power
His main point of his campaign boils down to make things work “right”, by the book, the way they were designed. Primarily, by eliminating corruption, ensuring fair voting and revamping inefficient post-soviet mechanisms in government. I don’t remember him having any particular stances on social issues like religion or abortion etc. It was more about making the government actually democratic and functional, then letting the others push their agendas.
So I suspect if Putin is ever ousted, whoever replaces him (whether this guy or another) will be there because people think he can bring stability, not because the successor will actually be a good leader (from a western perspective).
Exactly the thought of most Putin’s supporters, who were there during the 90’s, or been scared by the images of those by the propaganda machine. But honestly, as someone who grew in the 90’s, I’ll take that over what we got now. Back then people had opportunity, be it a businessman or a criminal mastermind, which kind of sucked if you chose first and encountered the latter, but at least it was possible. Nowadays, there’s not any. There’s only small business and then there’s business effectively controlled by the government, with nothing in between.
Anyway. I find it interesting this guy hasn’t yet been executed. Instead they (supposedly) shuffle him off elsewhere. If you were Putin, why not kill him?
He’s literal Nelson Mandela right now. Killing him would make a lot of people boil with rage and might cause a massive unrest.
If Navalny ever comes to power, I don’t have any particular hope he’ll be a “good” leader
Oh he’d be good. Just not necesarilly aligned with western politics. Like, he would’ve not gone to war with Ukraine because it wouldn’t make sense, but, if for some reason he did, his revamped government might’ve actually beat Ukraine in a week like Putin hoped, as Ukraine still hindered by the same post-soviet problems that Russia has, along with, well, war. And that’s the dangerous part given his past nationalist past. Like, he could’ve went to war Georgia instead as he had particular grudge against them in the past.
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