In any given exchange of violence for these actors, it is a pretty reliable bet to say that there will be about a 10:1 ratio of Palestinians versus Israelis killed. I expect that we will see between 10k and 20k Palestinians killed, and probably somewhere less than 2k total Israelis killed. I think there will be fewer people killed by bombs and bullets than by the blockade. I suspect 90% of the casualties will be civilians. I think that all of the people who die in fear and pain while hiding in their homes as well as those who die on the barricades will be forgotten in a year or so.
I also suspect that the remaining checks on Bibi’s already significant power will end, and that Hamas will effectively cease to exist as a political power.
Their existence depended on their existence being more politically palatable than the level of effort necessary for their elimination.
A modern nation-state like Israel or the US relies on a principle of disproportionate response to deter aggression. You have the most far-right, violent, and most corrupt government in the history of the state in charge and, as a result of the scale and targets of the “unprovoked” attack, they have the support of the only countries whose support matters in situations like these. The level of violence executed against Israel was enough to piss it off, but not to hurt it at all. None of their very significant military capacity was diminished. Hamas doesn’t have an Air Force. They don’t have any SAMs to speak of. They are cut off from resupply. They have no armored vehicles nor the ability to defend against them in significant number. Their “artillery” consists of unguided rockets they can fire in a general direction and which inflict so little damage as to be militarily ignorable and which only count as a “terror weapon” because it helps Israeli propaganda. They are politically and geographically isolated. They will not be resupplied. Israel on the other hand has a blank check and supply lines that cannot be interrupted.
If Israel decides to effect a ground incursion, it will be over rubble. They will call in airstrikes from fighter-bombers that the Palestinians will not be able to defend against. This is not Afghanistan. This is not Ireland.
Netanyahu is going to proceed as if he has a mandate to end this, and he is a very hard person. I do not think it gave him enough inertia to do to Gaza what Putin did to Crimea - I don’t think they can simply call it part of Israel now - but there’s going to be a reckoning.
What we are seeing right now is the limited response. I’ve been on the wrong end of irregular infantry. I’ve never been on the wrong end of modern armor, air, and artillery. I don’t recommend either, but the effects of the latter are indescribable. That’s not even touching on intelligence and special services, who I am very certain are being tasked as we speak.
Life in Gaza is about to get intensely worse for civilians. It will remain much worse than it was long after the last shell gets fired.
I honestly cannot see any way that this results in anything but an across the board loss for hamas. I also think it’s going to crush Gaza. Making life in Gaza even worse than it was is really hard, but I think they managed to make sure that comes about.
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