SpaceCowboy,
@SpaceCowboy@lemmy.ca avatar

In modern wars, the invasion isn’t actually the hard part. It’s the occupation that’s the hard part. And Russia is having a really difficult time trying to accomplish the easy part (the invasion).

The only way Russia can go after Georgia (or anywhere else) would be if they withdrew from Ukraine immediately. Taking territory from Ukraine means more land they have to deal with a resistance campaign. Occupying any country takes a large amount of manpower, and Ukraine is a very large country and will likely be dedicated to resist a Russian occupation for at least a decade.

By most estimates, Russia simply doesn’t have the manpower to successfully occupy Ukraine. Even if Russia can take all of the territory (which I doubt) they’d bogged down for at least a decade, with the most likely outcome being a withdrawal and collapse of of the Russian Federation similar to how the Soviet campaign ended in Afghanistan.

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