Economics say that technological advances hurt those displaced for a short period of time but the entire rest of the economy improves and the displaced people are smart enough to find other jobs in the new economy with higher standard of living…
Unless the value created never makes it back to the economy…
“AI” can’t replace people in any way. The most it could possibly do is assist a person in performing a task because it is a tool which does not actually have intelligence or awareness. This may be a debate but I am firmly on the side of punting Wilson the volleyball and cautioning people not to anthropomorphize a program...
It doesn’t take strong AI to have a significant negative effect on the common person. In the same way that “self checkout robots” removed 9 of 10 cashier’s (one left to monitor the machines), chatgpt and other LLMs have the ability to remove much of the time composing executive summaries, and other time consuming activities. The average person will be let go from communication heavy companies and there will be a few very rich individuals capturing the increased productivity until the market adapts across 4 years (unless another tech breakthrough happens while the common person is retooling through university). The anxiety is not without cause. The cost of university is 1 year of gross wages.
My argument is that the anxiety is misplaced if it’s directed toward technology
I agree with you there.
The anxiety should be directed at the institution of capitalism itself
I don’t see the connection there. Perhaps Human Nature? Perhaps governmental structure? Perhaps social programs failing the groups i care about (including myself).
Edit: i went up and reread your original argument, and i responded there.
I haven’t engaged in long form debates in years. This is fun for me too.
Only in capitalism does better technology mean more profit for capitalists rather than less work for workers.
Regarding your summary, one of the assumptions is that we have to compare the investors to the workers. If standard of living is increasing all around, does it matter if one group is growing faster than the other?
The fundamental unit of Capitalism, the thing that drives everything, are Capitalists (investors) investing their capital (Money) with the intention of receiving a return on their investment (more money than they invested). … People who are not capitalists in capitalism are workers.
The idea that investors are the only “capitalists” and workers have no ability to leverage their assets (time, money, health, etc.) to get more return (work less or more luxury) is a little flimsy:
Every person in any government/land/time (including workers in capitalism) has had scarce resources that they had to allocate in order to better their life. Scarce resources like health/time, calories, fair weather, the merchant is in town for only x days, etc.
Haggling, inventing, and working with tools have existed in every society (including capitalist ones) for the last few millennia.> under capitalism the only way that a worker can have a decent standard of living is through selling their time to a capitalist enterprise
Hard disagree there. I see two assumptions there:
decent standard of living
the only way … is through selling their time
Regarding a decent standard of living, 200 years ago the greatest of kings couldn’t have imagined indoor plumbing. Food that keeps basically forever in a small package? Well it is probably jerky or poison or in a plastic wrapper. Food that keeps after you cook it? It must be in an ice box. We are living above the class of kings but we have tunnel vision due to a hedonic treadmill. Some people take up hobbies to remind themselves of just how luxurious daily life is: camping.
Regarding the only way, tunnel vision occurs when all known generations have followed the same path. For example, if your dad was a farmer, your grandpa was a farmer, and all of your friends are farmers, would you think of becoming a train engineer as you grew up? No? What about if the crops didn’t do well when you are about to get married, would you start thinking about train engineering? Probably no as well. But if the crops do poorly and you move to the big city to try to find your fortune, you might stumble on a classified ad for train engineering.
Right now, we have immense pressures for de-urbanization where we migrate back to the farms where there is no “enterprise”, but as a society, we had a generation and a half with blue collar jobs, then a generation and a half with white collar jobs, and nobody remembers the brown collar jobs (also technology in agriculture is such that a farmer with tech is doing 1000 the work of farmers with only livestock, so perhaps we should start our own businesses where we are).
Right now, to start your own business, there is a lot of risk. The chance of someone suing your pants and shirt off is percieved to be high. Years ago, you were an apprentice for a few years, you started your own business as a journeyman, then you were declared a master by your guild (if you were in the city) so you would be spending ~3/4 of your life as a business owner. I don’t know of many business owners other than plumbers, contractors, local restaurants, and landlords (renting out basements). I have tunnel vision and when I try to break out and plan starting a business, people around me get anxiety worse than me.> only due to the nature of capitalism would labor saving technology be a threat
Labor saving technology is always a threat to the status quo especially so because it calls into question society’s assumptions. The worker (numerous and easily isolated) feels the anxiety from threats to the status quo the most as there is the most uncertainty (isolation increases uncertainty). The investor who doesn’t do his due diligence is soon parted from his money, so he is constantly doing market research, labor research, and assessing competition (or delegating this to CEOs, external auditors, and other decision making management).
So what are the assumptions in society regarding economics (management of scarce resources like time, money, food, energy, etc.)?
Capitalism (where all individuals are owners of scarce resources) incentivizes people with promises of future stability (pay to be specialized, then be paid in increased wages). Socialism/communism (where community/governments are owners of scarce resources incentivizes people with promises of “taking care of you”. <u> I think this is the crux of the argument. </u> If AI (or any technological advancement that could save time) advances at a sufficient rate that voids the economic assumptions behind most of society:
an individual can increase their capture of value via specialization,
an individual can invest scarce resources freely into growth/innovation due to the implied promise of future stability, etc.
then there will be unrest until people adjust to match the new normal of society’s assumptions.
Every theory I have explored on this subject has used the assumption that “effort is adverse” therefore some kind of payment must be made in order to incentivize more than zero effort from someone. When workers expend effort, they look for ways to not have to expend as much. Workers with no incentive to work more efficiently will not do any inventing/innovation.
I think that one of the primary causes of rapid growth is the application of the scientific method to everything. We have statistics (probability), engineering, etc. all growing at lightning rates (compared to the millennia long agricultural revolution). One of the ways that worked to prevent power consolidation was death of those in power and a subsequent war of succession. We currently have LLCs that are owned over multi generations with boards of directors and CEOs that are increasingly proficient at power consolidation (governmental, monetary, environmental, health, etc.). My one final thought is from the bible: Isaiah 5:8
Woe to you who add house to house and join field to field till no space is left and you live alone in the land.
The context as i understand it is Isaiah is speaking about people merging lands & businesses and wealth then producing almost nothing with it. I think that mega corporations are leaving no space left for an inheritance, and shortly they will produce nothing and fall.
I think we have debated the problem, but now I am starting to look at implied solutions. I think you are implying that “a sufficiently strong welfare state” could fix this, but it will be weakened by investors who will use their power to reduce the hold that taxes have on them. I am implying that if we do nothing but reduce tunnel vision via education and vote with our feet that society will reallocate and anxiety will reduce. I remember reading somewhere that a group that you consider friends and family has a hard limit on it. Something like 250 to 1000 people. After that, you have severely reduced empathy during negotiations over scarce resources. I wish i had a solution involving familys/unions/churches or something that would reduce tunnel vision.
Honda made an airport robot to handle all the boring, repetitive tasks - The Verge (www.theverge.com)
Lakers legend Rick Fox built a house that can suck CO2 out of the atmosphere - The Verge (www.theverge.com)
"AI" Is Not a Problem and Is a Good Thing, but Is Being Abused by the Actual Problem
“AI” can’t replace people in any way. The most it could possibly do is assist a person in performing a task because it is a tool which does not actually have intelligence or awareness. This may be a debate but I am firmly on the side of punting Wilson the volleyball and cautioning people not to anthropomorphize a program...