ammonium

@ammonium@lemmy.world

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ammonium, (edited )

How are they planning on sending over any significant manpower and supplies across 2800km?

Rail? They border Russia and there’s a railroad over the border

ammonium,

The mistake you make is that you assume the law works the same in China as in countries that have rule of law. China doesn’t have rule of law, they have ‘rule by law’. The Communist Party isn’t just above the law, the law is a tool for them to use how they see fit. If you are undermining the Communist Party then that is by definition misinformation.

Remember, this is the same country where one day the minister of health aplauded a journalist’s effort to combat pollution with a documentary called under the dome, and the next day it was gone from the internet as if it never existed. Whenever they have internal issues they stir up some hatred for the USA or Japan, only to be forgotten somewhat later.

They took 1984 not as a warning, but as a manual

ammonium,

Then look at the total TWh from renewables, and rate it has been growing Y-o-Y and extrapolate until it reaches the number needed to eliminate fossil fuels.

You’ll find it will take decades to build enough renewable capacity to replace fossil fuel based electricity generation.

I get ~2 decades when I extrapolate these numbers (from 2010-2023) to get to 2022 total primary energy usage for solar alone.

Energy usage will grow as well, and keeping that growth is ambitious, but it the future doesn’t look that bleak too me if you look at it that way.

ammonium,

Exponential, it fits the curve very nicely. I can give you the python code if you want to. I got 2 decades for all energy usage, not only electricity, which is only one sixth of that.

I just took the numbers for the whole world, that’s easier to find and in the end the only thing that matters.

The next few years are going to be interesting in my opinion. If we can make efuels cheaper than fossil fuels (look up Prometheus Fuels and Terraform Industries), we’re going to jump even harder on solar and if production can keep up it will even grow faster.

ammonium,

Here you go, you’ll need numpy, scipy and matplotlib:


<span style="color:#323232;">from scipy.optimize import curve_fit
</span><span style="color:#323232;">from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
</span><span style="color:#323232;">
</span><span style="color:#323232;"># 2010-2013 data from https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy [TWh]
</span><span style="color:#323232;">y = np.array([32, 63, 97, 132, 198, 256, 328, 445, 575, 659, 853, 1055, 1323, 1629])
</span><span style="color:#323232;">x = np.arange(0, len(y))
</span><span style="color:#323232;">
</span><span style="color:#323232;"># function we expect the data to fit
</span><span style="color:#323232;">fit_func = lambda x, a, b, c: a * np.exp2(b * x ) + c
</span><span style="color:#323232;">popt, _ = curve_fit(fit_func, x, y, maxfev=5000)
</span><span style="color:#323232;">
</span><span style="color:#323232;">fig, ax = plt.subplots()
</span><span style="color:#323232;">ax.scatter(x + 2010, y, label="Data", color="b", linestyle=":")
</span><span style="color:#323232;">ax.plot(x + 2010, fit_func(x, *popt), color="r", linewidth=3.0, linestyle="-", label='best fit curve: $y={0:.3f} * 2^{{{1:.3f}x}} + {2:.3f}$'.format(*popt))
</span><span style="color:#323232;">plt.legend()
</span><span style="color:#323232;">plt.show()
</span>

Here’s what I get, global solar energy generated doubles every ~3.5 (1/0.284) years.

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/5999087a-772f-4cb2-81fa-98f7684bd2a6.png

ammonium,

Yes, just solar. Hydro is bigger now, but it doesn’t have the growing potential. Wind is currently also growing exponential, but I don’t see it doing that for 20 more years. And even if it does, it doesn’t really make a big difference since exponential + exponential is still exponential. If it grows as fast as solar that would mean we’re just a few years ahead of the curve.

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If you’re a parent, you might have noticed toddler “milk” while browsing the formula aisle. The powdered drink, aimed at children between 1 and 3, often pledges benefits like “improved brain development” or “improved immune function.”...

ammonium,

You guys don’t have UHT milk?

ammonium,

I’ve never had UHT milk go bad in less than a week. Longest I’ve had it in my fridge and passed the smell and taste check was over a month, but at that point I didn’t trust it anymore.

ammonium,

That’s one weird argument. Are you implying morality stops at borders?

And it’s not even meddling, they are asking for help.

ammonium,

A moral cause in one country can be an evil wrongdoing in other. Case in point - Al-Qaeda was formed because US troops were deployed in some country in the middle east to defend someone.

Uhm, where did you get that from?

Anyway, I get your point, but your example only shows that morality doesn’t really stop at borders for most people.

I’m okay with helping Ukraine. I’m not okay if it’s helping only to fuck with Russia.

If it’s to stop an authoritarian state from taking over a democratic state it’s good for me. If it’s because of other less ulterior motives (and let’s not kid ourselves, it’s at least partly because of that), I don’t mind. Is it bad when a doctor only saves lives because it pays well?

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