jordanlund, 1 month ago

The problem is the bad results for Biden are showing the same, across multiple polls, multiple states, and multiple times.

If you look at the battleground states, they went from +Biden, to tossup, to +Trump over the course of 3 or 4 months.

You can’t say “Oh, but the polls we liked were accurate, the ones now are not.”

Look at Pennsylvania, nominally Joe’s home state. “Son of Scranton” and all that.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/

January/February they flipped back and forth a bit, but Biden hasn’t led a poll there since March 26th.

That’s a disaster because PA is a must win state, he can’t win the election without it and it’s one of the states that doomed Hillary’s run.

PA, MI, WI. He needs all three and he’s desperately behind in all three. It’s not one poll, it’s a pattern of polls across months.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/

Now, where Hillary’s problem was she took states like Michigan and Wisconsin for granted and failed to campaign there, Biden’s problem is he’s taking too long to campaign there, and he’s burning money in states that his advisors are telling him are in play (Florida, North Carolina) when they really are not.

Biden can’t wait until the convention in August to start the campaign proper, and that seems to be what he’s doing. That only gives him just 78 days to mount an effective defense. 2 months and change.