Unpopular opinion but the simple fact is that you’re right. Turnout reflects enthusiasm and “status quo” and “you’ll be voting against the other worse guy” simply do not turn out voters.
I’m going to vote, I always vote, but I am deeply concerned about the Democrats’ electoral strategy. Trump promises to blow things up. He’s full of shit and his plans will make everything worse for a lot of people, including his own voters, but the promise of radical change in itself is enticing for a disaffected electorate.
The promise of more of the same is exactly the opposite of what motivates a disaffected electorate. The sometimes-voters will stay home if they aren’t given any reason to be enthusiastic.