CIS had an interesting chat with John Mearscheimer about Israel that’s unsurprising, but worth the listen. The host commented with a running joke that, "having been strongly supportive of Netanyahu after October 7, Joe Biden is seriously invested in the two-state solution—Michigan and Pennsylvania (@1:17:38)
Tough sell. Sure it’s obvious who will make the situation measurably worse in nearly every way, but it’s really hard to motivate and mobilize a voting block on harm reduction, when the incumbent elicits strongly emotional revulsion right now.
Recency bias, negativity bias, etc. are so hard to overcome. It’s like trying to logic your way out of an argument someone has emotion’d themselves into. You may know the answer conceptually, but actually feeling ok about it enough to act isn’t a logic proposition. It’s one of the most emotionally charged decisions we make.
Not a demographic I’d be counting on showing up in large numbers if I we’re a campaign strategist. Sadly, Trump is retaining well over 90% of his voting coalition from 2020, whereas Biden is only retaining a fraction of his (very diverse) block. Since the election will come down to a very small number of votes, he’s going to need all of his 2020 coalition to show up. 4 years of reality make that a hard bargain for Arab Americans and Republicans who held their noses after Jan 6 and voted blue though. Ugh.