I think Rove is wrong. He's like Carville -- he used to be a legendary master because he absorbed the shape of the landscape, but then he solidified, and he thinks it's still 2004 and always will be, and that nothing's changed since then.
Trump's base wants to start a civil war with the Democrats. If Trump wants to win, he needs to sound like an angry crazy person. It's when he tries to be normal that it all goes sour for him. That has no spice to inspire the electorate, and it doesn't suit him and he doesn't do a good job with it anyway, and all the people who were looking for a sensible leader have long since left the GOP's tent.