Oh goodie, another Republican party autopsy that I can put on the current pile of Republican party autopsy that have been written while they keep winning shit.
A lot of folks here are rightfully pessimistic about this being the actual end, considering the past history of articles like this.
I’d like to present the possibility that the GOP is crumbling BECAUSE of why those years weren’t the end for the GOP like articles predicted: Trump is inflicting the same institutional damage to the RNC Obama inflicted on the DNC. The same kind of damage that gave an opening for Republicans to revitalize themselves.
The only problem is whether if there will be enough rot by this year’s election: the biggest evidence of the DNC’s shrivelling under Obama’s shadow was the 2016 election where Hillary basically saved them from death in exchange for fealty. It’s not entirely clear if the 2010 losses were from early damage or just the upswell of reactionary outrage to Obama’s presidency.
Let’s say that the ship is actually sinking, for arguments sake.
There’s a whole bevy of rats swelling out of those fetid waters, the smart ones jumped ship some time ago, given that there are only two viable options in the United States, where do you suppose that they will go?
How will that affect composition and policy of those that remain as The SS Trump slips below the murky waters?
given that there are only two viable options in the United States, where do you suppose that they will go?
To whatever right wing party replaces the GOP.
There’s nothing magical about Democrats or the GOP, there’s nothing that requires they be the two parties. But FPTP always collapses into a two party system. Rarely a third party gets some power, it and it’s closest of the main parties lose several elections to stealing each other’s votes, and eventually one of them absorbs the other, often with some policy adjustments.
So presuming this kills the GOP as we know it, either another right wing party emerges and absorbs whatever is left of the GOP or the GOP adjusts and reabsorbs the fleeing rats, making some adjustments to make them willing to stay.
I enjoyed this for what it is: therapeutic fan fiction.
Moving on, we should not underestimate:
How absolutely craven most republican lawmakers are
How well, for better or worse, Trump communicates to boomers who we already know are active at the ballot box
how deeply bought in the Christian right/Christian nationalists are
Campaign math doesn’t work like it did. Just because Trump is dismantling seemingly durable elements of the GOP establishment, that doesn’t mean he’s dismantling his capability to win.
Vote like it’s the last election ever. I’ll leave the rest unsaid.
But it does mean also, that the moment he bites the dust (likely, as he is pretty old and under a lot of strain), there is no second chance for the GOP. At least in a long time.
Young voters have never been more progressive, the GOP is breaking into MAGA or no-MAGA and the republican party is running out of money fast. This is their Hail-Marry and they now it.
I’m not sure I agree with this. It seems wholly plausible that another politician could easily pick up the mantle and use the Trumpian playbook. I get the cult of personality thing, but I’m not convinced the danger goes away with Trump’s last wretched heartbeat.
Sure, the danger will not entirely go away, but it will be crippled severly, giving us a chance to rid ourself of more fascists (basically the entire GOP at this point). There is already a lot of infighting and people already resign from congress. Its likely the GOP will loose their majority because of that.
Trumps legal cost is draining conservative coffers and he fleced his voters on every turn. The party lost big donors, specifically because of the ever increasing reality-disconnect Trump is forcing. He is just a to risk, investment and black hole for funds.
When it comes to it, the trumpian playbook just reads “be Donald Trump” and no one else is that.
No other know candidate comes close. DeSantis is barely human at the best of days. Haley is a women, a negative for the sexist GOP.
They went all in now on MAGA to mobilise their party in ever dwindeling chances of getting elected again. Turns out if you are a ghoul, hate humans and let that mask slip (Roe for example), you wont get votes and loose support.
Jesus tapdancing christ I wish they’d hurry the fuck up about it though. This “thrashing about as they’re dying” bullshit is extremely annoying and worrying to have to live through.
I remember reading these type of stories after Obama win in 2008. 2010 elections come around and people don’t go to vote “since the Republican Party is finished!” and sure enough, who wins all these State and local elections? Republicans. And they get to re-draw the maps to keep them in power, which in a few States they’re just been able to un-do this Fuckery.
I remember reading these type of stories after Obama win in 2008. 2010 elections come around and people don’t go to vote “since the Republican Party is finished!” and sure enough, who wins all these State and local elections? Republicans. And they get to re-draw the maps to keep them in power, which in a few States they’re just been able to un-do this Fuckery.
Don’t overestimate the strength of conviction of individual Republicans. Given the choice between upholding their principles and maintaining their position, the great majority of them choose the latter every time.
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