I watched a video on Youtube (so take it with a grain of salt) that claimed that the current climate models don’t take into account the reflectivity of the clouds. When these are included, the models appear to be far more accurate. (I only have a passing interest in the topic, no expertise, so I likely misrepresented the conclusions. If you are interested more watch the video yourself.)
That’s the sort of comment that gets brought up on the news following a shooting. We won’t allow talk of “making lists”, especially in the context of your other removed comments calling for violence.
It’s AI, cloud storage, and cellular internet. That’s a whole lot of microwave radiation and straight thermal radiation that didn’t exist ten years ago, and it’s growing fast. The additional heat build-up from our tech is outstripping our ability to compensate for it.
Look we can’t start blaming individual countries - even if Poland has unusually gassy citizens, I just don’t think they are a large enough population to make that kind of difference.
I don’t know… I had Polish pea soup once and I farted basically all night long. Imagine an entire nation doing that, every night. We might be on to something here.
The earth generally has an overall fixed rate at which it can radiate heat into space.
We dig up millions of years of stored solar energy and release it as heat.
I really don't understand why people are surprised. Sure, it can get really complicated as you factor in varying cloud cover, solar output, greenhouse effect.
But long-term trend, it shouldn't surprise anyone that every joule of energy we pull out of stored carbon, or even mass->energy via nuclear. We are generating more heat now than the earth is used to radiating out.
So obviously the average temperature is going to increase.
Even if we find ways to store the energy back, it takes energy to do so, and therefore more waste heat in the end.
If we want to cool the planet, we have to increase the rate that we radiate heat out into space.
At present, the waste heat term is about four orders of magnitude smaller than the solar term. But at a growth factor of ten per century, they would reach parity in roughly 400 years. Indeed, the surface temperature of Earth would reach the boiling point of water (373 K) in just over 400 years under this relentless prescription. Clearly, extrapolating our recent — seemingly modest — 2.3% annual energy growth very far into the future quickly becomes ridiculous, and cannot happen.
This is not intended to suggest that waste heat is a bigger problem than, say, climate change from carbon dioxide emissions.
So that’s something we’re going to need to think about after getting greenhouse gas emissions under control.
Already taken into account, as well as other phenomena such as El Ninjo. Even if you add up the worst case scenarios for all known mechanisms the measured numbers are above that, there’s a gap in the models and it’s not in our favour.
When a year or month is not as warm we always say “you can’t judge on a single outlier, the average is upwards” Maybe 2023 will not turn out to be an outlier and it needs to be examined of course (and I know people are) but there’s also no need to immediately go to “we’re in uncharted waters.” Not to mention weaselly headlines like “we could be…” immediately make me lose all confidence in the author.
Media sensationalism is part of the problem even when we think they’re agreeing with us.
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