Biden campaign announces it will target flipping Trump’s Florida

President Biden’s reelection campaign announced Monday that it will aim to flip Florida, targeting the home of former President Trump.

Campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a memo that investing in Florida is part of the Biden campaign’s pathway to 270 electoral votes. Trump won the Sunshine State in 2020 with more than 51 percent, compared to Biden’s 48 percent.

“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” she said.

…

The Biden campaign has also set its sights on flipping in November. Trump won North Carolina by a tight margin in 2020, and Biden visited the state as part of his tour of every battleground state last month.

givesomefucks,

…

For those not paying attention:

In 2020 Biden lost Florida by the largest margin in 20 years, despite polling 3 point ahead before the election.

Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won Florida by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016, over Hillary Clinton, by 1.2 points; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004.

…wikipedia.org/…/2020_United_States_presidential_…

Right now trump is up 7 point…

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/florida/

Florida is not where Biden needs to focus, it’s all those states where just 30k votes got him the election.

Like, if we’re really stuck with Biden, can his campaign at least act rationally this time?

Nudding,

Ancient President Genobiden wants to prove that he’s still cool to the young hip 70 year olds in Florida.

Frog-Brawler,
@Frog-Brawler@kbin.social avatar

The results in FL we’re likely fraudulent; but never investigated.

givesomefucks,

If trump underperforms as much as Biden did, he’d still win by more than he did in 2020…

But assuming Florida was fraudulent in 2020, and nothing was done…

What’s changed?

Note:

You got a source for republicans committing large scale fraud in Florida? All I’m seeing is a small amount of idiots that voted twice and obviously got caught…

Which isn’t enough to make up for the ~370,000 votes Biden lost by.

Frog-Brawler,
@Frog-Brawler@kbin.social avatar

What’s changed

A lot actually. 2020 and 2024 are not the same political climate. For starters, the 2020 election was pre-insurrection. Since then, Jacksonville voters elected a democrat as their mayor. Abortion and recreational marijuana are going to be on the ballot as a result of citizens organizing; not their elected officials representing them.

Some people in FL are starting to wake up. It wasn’t so long ago that FL voted blue in the Presidential elections.

Either way, Biden didn’t need FL to win in 2020; as he displayed in the previous election. This would explain why no money was spent on any large scale investigation into the fraud. The outcome would have remained the same.

I’m not going to link every unrelated article that comes back after a search for “2020 FL voter fraud.” There’s a ton of projection coming from Tallahassee though.

givesomefucks,

Some people in FL are starting to wake up

You say that, But it’s went from +3 Biden, to +7 trump in those 4 years…

And Jacksonville mayor?

The Republican candidates combined for roughly 51% of the vote, while the Democrats combined for 48%. This was the highest first-round combined vote share for Democrats in a Jacksonville mayoral race since the 1995 election.[54]

…wikipedia.org/…/2023_Jacksonville_mayoral_electi…

Dems did win the runoff by about 9k votes, but…

A city going barely blue in no way makes up for statewide polling.

Biden needs to be shoring up support in the States he barely won that got him into the White House last time, not taking them for granted and attacking Florida in 2024.

Skyrmir,

Gotta be careful with polling results. By necessity they’re weighted to match the most recent turn out demographics. Which is usually just a bit of an error range. With issues like abortion and weed, the younger vote changes a lot more than the polling algorithm. So the error bars are huge, and adjustments to add accuracy are most likely to just wrong. It’s one of the two major reasons for upsets at the ballot box. The other being the Bradley effect, which could also be very much in play the other direction.

Consider that the 7% lead Trump has right now is the average from two polls with less than a 4% error, that were 5% apart from each other. So at least one of them is just blatantly wrong, and really the odds are it’s both.

nondescripthandle,

Well if they were fraudulent and nothings changed about who runs the state and the elections then it’s even dumber to allocate resources there, since there’s nothing in place to prevent another fraud.

iAmTheTot,

You got some proof to back up that claim?

Frog-Brawler,
@Frog-Brawler@kbin.social avatar

Proof that widescale fraud wasn't investigated in FL? That's like asking me for proof that my package didn't arrive at my doorstep.

Omgboom,

Terrible idea, focus literally anywhere Else

themeatbridge,

He has enough money to go full press practically everywhere. If Biden can force Trump to campaign in Florida, even if it stays red, it will keep Trump out of swing states.

OneStepAhead,

This is hopefully the plan. The tris that Biden NEEDS to actually play some 4D chess. Keep the Trump campaign guessing and keep out maneuvering them.

anarchrist,

Not to pick nits, but applying pressure to an area so that your opponent has to defend is basically just regular chess.

OneStepAhead,

Yeah, the 4D chess was a joke. Whether Trump has anyone who is actually smart in his campaign hardly matters with the kid gloves everyone (the courts and most media) treats him with.

Neato,
@Neato@ttrpg.network avatar

Yeah. Sounds like this is going to become the Cold War of politics this season. Force the other side to spend themselves to death so they can’t spend strategically.

Frog-Brawler,
@Frog-Brawler@kbin.social avatar

Abortion and Recreational Marijuana are on the FL ballot as a result of petitions and signatures. The voters are still blue in a lot of areas; and there’s been a large rejection of the DeSantis maneuvering around Disney, and costing the state business.

A terrible idea would be not trying.

Poayjay,

That’s what most people fail to realize about the us elections. Literally nothing matters but voter turnout. Every election with high turnout goes to democrats. You’re not going to convince any Trump supporters to suddenly vote Biden. It’s Biden vs voter apathy, not Biden vs trump. Republicans know this, that’s why they are always pushing the “both-sides” bs. Having abortion and pot on the ballot make Florida very winnable.

whotookkarl,
@whotookkarl@lemmy.world avatar

Pretty sure they called it the bible belt because Florida was primarily democrat in federal elections for so long. With the divisions within the republican party it’s not such a long shot.

Zombiepirate,
@Zombiepirate@lemmy.world avatar

I just wish they’d try and flush Turd Cruz out of Texas for control of the Senate.

He’s a prime target after abandoning the State during Snowmageddon and blaming it on his daughters.

Also, I fuckin’ hate that disgusting little troll.

athos77,

This is why the Republicans have been focused on making Florida and Texas so toxic: there was a chance of turning them blue. By being all Handmaid's Tale, they've been trying to drive out anyone leaning blue and attract more MAGAts. Because there are just too many electoral votes in either state for the Republicans to be willing to lose them.

Rapidcreek,

Missing from all this whoha is that there is also a measure to legalize recreational marijuana on the ballot. In any case, Biden has already won Florida twice with Obama.

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