Biden campaign announces it will target flipping Trump’s Florida

President Biden’s reelection campaign announced Monday that it will aim to flip Florida, targeting the home of former President Trump.

Campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a memo that investing in Florida is part of the Biden campaign’s pathway to 270 electoral votes. Trump won the Sunshine State in 2020 with more than 51 percent, compared to Biden’s 48 percent.

“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” she said.

…

The Biden campaign has also set its sights on flipping in November. Trump won North Carolina by a tight margin in 2020, and Biden visited the state as part of his tour of every battleground state last month.

Rapidcreek,

Missing from all this whoha is that there is also a measure to legalize recreational marijuana on the ballot. In any case, Biden has already won Florida twice with Obama.

tron,
@tron@midwest.social avatar

Honestly, maybe this is pure hubris here, but I think Biden is in for a big win in November. They have so much fucking money on hand they can blow it in Florida to troll Trump and Desantis. I think roughly 10-20% of the Republican party is, because of Jan 6, never Trump voters. We see Haley getting about that much support in these late primaries, even after she dropped out. We haven’t had an election with Trump on the ballot since Jan 6 I think this is the sole reason he won’t win. Moderates fucking hate him over Jan 6. So we have completely disengaged moderate conservatives, big donors are walking away because they don’t want to pay Trumps legal bills. State GOPs are bankrupt. And to top it all off, Trump is going to be in court all summer over __________ crimes

Meanwhile Biden has strong issues to campaign on: Abortion and threats to American democracy. We still haven’t managed to hit a recession yet, even tho its been predicted for the last 3 years. Things are improving, albeit slowly. Also what nobody in the mainstream is considering: Polling is completely broken. Pew research did a poll and found that 12% of respondents were capable of operating a Nuclear Sub (the reality is less than 1%). Online polls pay per poll, people are very clearly just answering question as quickly as possible to get the pay outs.

Catma,

I wish I had this amount of confidence in my fellow man. I fear this election is going to be just as close as the last two and it will be a coin flip in the end.

givesomefucks,

They have so much fucking money on hand they can blow it in Florida to troll Trump and Desantis. I think roughly 10-20% of the Republican party is,

It already cost Biden over a billion dollars in 2020 to win the electoral by a very small margin…

Pew research did a poll and found that 12% of respondents were capable of operating a Nuclear Sub (the reality is less than 1%)

Weirdly topical, but I’m assuming they meant Naval Nuclear Engineers…

The ASVAB is typical standardized test where the best score is 99%. Weighted for when the test is taken.

So if only 1% could be a nuke, that would be assuming 100% of people take the test and the Navy only takes 99.

Now, I got a 99, and got into the program. But there was people in the high 70s as well. People could retake the test as many times as they want. And there is/was even a supplemental test people could take if their main ASVAB wasn’t quite high enough.

So yeah, 12% of poll responders being able to do the toughest job of a nuclear sub doesn’t sound right…

It’s really much higher than that.

RGB3x3,

You didn’t click the link did you?

The poll was about who is “licensed” not just “smart enough.”

givesomefucks,

You didn’t click the link did you?

The on hyperlinked in the previous sentence that just says “polls are broken”?

No, I don’t click on most links that don’t say where they’re going and sounc conspiracial. I’m on a phone and can’t “hover” to see.

I just did tho:

For example, in a February 2022 survey experiment, we asked opt-in respondents if they were licensed to operate a class SSGN (nuclear) submarine. In the opt-in survey, 12% of adults under 30 claimed this qualification, significantly higher than the share among older respondents. In reality, the share of Americans with this type of submarine license rounds to 0%.

So, OP read one thing, and then said another.

But that’s about something factual, not an opinion like “who are you going to vote for”.

And it is specifically about online opt in polls…

pewresearch.org/…/online-opt-in-polls-can-produce…

Which is probably why OP decided to hide the link. You don’t even need to read the title to realize why it’s not relevant. The link says it plain as day.

But man, I’ve been overestimating people recently.

If you truly don’t understand why “online opt in polls” are the worst kind of polling I can take the time to explain it. But it’s basically like saying trump is selling shitty shoes so you’ve decided to go barefoot the rest of your life.

FlowVoid,

“online opt in polls” are the worst kind of polling

YouGov, SurveyMonkey, The Harris Poll, Morning Consult and Lucid are all online opt-in polls. Those polls, and others like them, are the ones that everyone uses to show that Trump is ahead of Biden.

The rest are generally random-digit dialing phone polls. Guess what: those are even worse.

tron,
@tron@midwest.social avatar

deleted_by_author

    •
    givesomefucks,

    Formating a hyperlink so it’s embedded in text is more work than just putting the link…

    But the multitasking does explain why you didn’t notice it was an online opt in poll.

    That was my issues. Your statistics, not your “journalism” while shitting.

    Viking_Hippie, (edited )

    maybe this is pure hubris here, but I think Biden is in for a big win in November

    Yes, it IS pure hubris. He won most mutual states by a smaller margin than Hilary and he’s currently behind in at least one of the swing states that cost her the election.

    If he doesn’t get his act together and stops turning droves away from voting at all, he’s going to lose.

    Just because I know some will trot out this strawman: no, I don’t WANT him to lose. He’s by far the lesser evil and if he loses to the mango Mussolini, there might not be another election.

    ashok36,

    Don’t forget that the republican party has shrunk just in raw numbers. Covid deaths and people switching parties after jan 6 means even if 100% of Republicans voted Trump in 2024 it’d be a smaller number than if 100% of Republicans voted Trump in 2020.

    BlackPenguins,

    The irony of killing off their own base by not taking covid seriously to own the libs.

    frezik,

    If Democrats try just a little, I think you’re right, and we could be seeing the complete collapse of the Republican party because of it. When special elections are flipping R+15 districts, and the reaction against the Dobbs decision has been so strong and sustained, then there’s a message that will work in every district. Meanwhile, Republican fundraising has already dried up, and what funds they do have are going into Trump’s mounting legal bills. The party has the wind knocked out of it, and if Dems would just fucking try rather than give them a moment to catch their breath, it would be a curbstomp.

    But they need to fucking try.

    Omgboom,

    Terrible idea, focus literally anywhere Else

    themeatbridge,

    He has enough money to go full press practically everywhere. If Biden can force Trump to campaign in Florida, even if it stays red, it will keep Trump out of swing states.

    OneStepAhead,

    This is hopefully the plan. The tris that Biden NEEDS to actually play some 4D chess. Keep the Trump campaign guessing and keep out maneuvering them.

    anarchrist,

    Not to pick nits, but applying pressure to an area so that your opponent has to defend is basically just regular chess.

    OneStepAhead,

    Yeah, the 4D chess was a joke. Whether Trump has anyone who is actually smart in his campaign hardly matters with the kid gloves everyone (the courts and most media) treats him with.

    Neato,
    @Neato@ttrpg.network avatar

    Yeah. Sounds like this is going to become the Cold War of politics this season. Force the other side to spend themselves to death so they can’t spend strategically.

    Frog-Brawler,
    @Frog-Brawler@kbin.social avatar

    Abortion and Recreational Marijuana are on the FL ballot as a result of petitions and signatures. The voters are still blue in a lot of areas; and there’s been a large rejection of the DeSantis maneuvering around Disney, and costing the state business.

    A terrible idea would be not trying.

    Poayjay,

    That’s what most people fail to realize about the us elections. Literally nothing matters but voter turnout. Every election with high turnout goes to democrats. You’re not going to convince any Trump supporters to suddenly vote Biden. It’s Biden vs voter apathy, not Biden vs trump. Republicans know this, that’s why they are always pushing the “both-sides” bs. Having abortion and pot on the ballot make Florida very winnable.

    whotookkarl,
    @whotookkarl@lemmy.world avatar

    Pretty sure they called it the bible belt because Florida was primarily democrat in federal elections for so long. With the divisions within the republican party it’s not such a long shot.

    Zombiepirate,
    @Zombiepirate@lemmy.world avatar

    I just wish they’d try and flush Turd Cruz out of Texas for control of the Senate.

    He’s a prime target after abandoning the State during Snowmageddon and blaming it on his daughters.

    Also, I fuckin’ hate that disgusting little troll.

    givesomefucks,

    …

    For those not paying attention:

    In 2020 Biden lost Florida by the largest margin in 20 years, despite polling 3 point ahead before the election.

    Before the election, aggregate polls had Biden in the lead in Florida by up to almost 3 percentage points. Despite this, Trump won Florida by a 3.4-point margin, improving on his margin from 2016, over Hillary Clinton, by 1.2 points; it was the largest margin for any presidential election in Florida since 2004.

    …wikipedia.org/…/2020_United_States_presidential_…

    Right now trump is up 7 point…

    projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/…/florida/

    Florida is not where Biden needs to focus, it’s all those states where just 30k votes got him the election.

    Like, if we’re really stuck with Biden, can his campaign at least act rationally this time?

    Nudding,

    Ancient President Genobiden wants to prove that he’s still cool to the young hip 70 year olds in Florida.

    Frog-Brawler,
    @Frog-Brawler@kbin.social avatar

    The results in FL we’re likely fraudulent; but never investigated.

    givesomefucks,

    If trump underperforms as much as Biden did, he’d still win by more than he did in 2020…

    But assuming Florida was fraudulent in 2020, and nothing was done…

    What’s changed?

    Note:

    You got a source for republicans committing large scale fraud in Florida? All I’m seeing is a small amount of idiots that voted twice and obviously got caught…

    Which isn’t enough to make up for the ~370,000 votes Biden lost by.

    Frog-Brawler,
    @Frog-Brawler@kbin.social avatar

    What’s changed

    A lot actually. 2020 and 2024 are not the same political climate. For starters, the 2020 election was pre-insurrection. Since then, Jacksonville voters elected a democrat as their mayor. Abortion and recreational marijuana are going to be on the ballot as a result of citizens organizing; not their elected officials representing them.

    Some people in FL are starting to wake up. It wasn’t so long ago that FL voted blue in the Presidential elections.

    Either way, Biden didn’t need FL to win in 2020; as he displayed in the previous election. This would explain why no money was spent on any large scale investigation into the fraud. The outcome would have remained the same.

    I’m not going to link every unrelated article that comes back after a search for “2020 FL voter fraud.” There’s a ton of projection coming from Tallahassee though.

    givesomefucks,

    Some people in FL are starting to wake up

    You say that, But it’s went from +3 Biden, to +7 trump in those 4 years…

    And Jacksonville mayor?

    The Republican candidates combined for roughly 51% of the vote, while the Democrats combined for 48%. This was the highest first-round combined vote share for Democrats in a Jacksonville mayoral race since the 1995 election.[54]

    …wikipedia.org/…/2023_Jacksonville_mayoral_electi…

    Dems did win the runoff by about 9k votes, but…

    A city going barely blue in no way makes up for statewide polling.

    Biden needs to be shoring up support in the States he barely won that got him into the White House last time, not taking them for granted and attacking Florida in 2024.

    Skyrmir,

    Gotta be careful with polling results. By necessity they’re weighted to match the most recent turn out demographics. Which is usually just a bit of an error range. With issues like abortion and weed, the younger vote changes a lot more than the polling algorithm. So the error bars are huge, and adjustments to add accuracy are most likely to just wrong. It’s one of the two major reasons for upsets at the ballot box. The other being the Bradley effect, which could also be very much in play the other direction.

    Consider that the 7% lead Trump has right now is the average from two polls with less than a 4% error, that were 5% apart from each other. So at least one of them is just blatantly wrong, and really the odds are it’s both.

    nondescripthandle,

    Well if they were fraudulent and nothings changed about who runs the state and the elections then it’s even dumber to allocate resources there, since there’s nothing in place to prevent another fraud.

    iAmTheTot,

    You got some proof to back up that claim?

    Frog-Brawler,
    @Frog-Brawler@kbin.social avatar

    Proof that widescale fraud wasn't investigated in FL? That's like asking me for proof that my package didn't arrive at my doorstep.

  • All
  • Subscribed
  • Moderated
  • Favorites
  • •
  • politics@lemmy.world
  • fightinggames
  • All magazines
    •