President Joe Biden’s dismal showing at the CNN presidential debate against former President Donald Trump resonated around the world, with foreign diplomats expressing shock and concern while raising questions about the implications for a consequential US election that could upend the foreign policy status-quo should Trump be...
And it’s weird that one side of that equation is getting such a shriekingly loud level of coverage and the other side is getting more or less nothing.
It’s because Trump’s performance was exactly the same as prior years. He was a lying piece of shit then, he is a lying piece of shit now. Biden has run for President for 30+ years, and is visibly diminished vs even 4 years ago.
I honestly don’t think Biden is incapable. I think that he still showed a deep understanding of the issues facing the country. His stutter (which he has always had) showed up in force, and he was definitely far less articulate than Trump. I think he can still lead a White House staff that, working together, will get it all done.
He’s been running for President (on and off) since the Reagan era. We know what he used to be capable of in a debate. He is not the same man. Trump, for all his flaws, is a known quantity. His mannerisms, childish as they are, haven’t changed since 2016 (or, indeed, since First Grade.-
I also acknowledge that it is a lot easier for Trump to sound confident, because he doesn’t worry about actually being correct, or grounded at all in the same reality the rest of us share.
So while he can do the job, I have serious doubts that enough people can look past that performance to give him the margin he needs. Being President is a tough job, and I think it’s reasonable to not have to make excuses for how the guy in office explains his positions.
Cognitive ability alone is not the whole story, the ability to be persuasive and communicate well is also a key point. I watched the whole debate, and Biden did not communicate well at all. He started out lousy, got a bit better in the middle, but then fell off the wagon again. I think if he had finished strong it would be a lot different.
Age is a key concern because it will affect everyone. Not every 80 year old is diminished, and not everyone has that mental decline before their physical decline accellerates. But we all end up in the same place, in the end. So his age is the one concern that Biden can’t counteract with a policy change or an executive order. All he can do is show us what he has. And he simply didn’t deliver, even after all his debate prep.
This is getting down voted here, but it shouldn’t be just because some people disagree. The NYT editorial board coming out with this is a Big Deal. It has the potential to change the race. A lot of influential people still read it.
Key Democratic leaders have been lining up to support Biden, but of course they will. He is their guy. We don’t know what private conversations are happening, though. If Biden can be convinced to drop out, all these people who are defending his decision to stay in now will defend his decision to back out.
No matter how many op-eds people write, though, Biden will stay in the game unless two things happen:
his polls take a further nosedive – but even then he may be convinced he can make that up
his donors dry up.
Even if Biden drops out, all the tankies here need to accept the fact that the Democratic nominee will not be some progressive darling who will stop shipping arms to Israel. It will be whats-her-name, and the entire party will expect us all to get behind her. Get over yourselves. Hold your nose and vote for her, no matter how much she loves cops.
And he’s not getting fired at the convention. The only off-ramp for Biden is if he backs out entirely. That means formally resigning and giving whats-her-name not only a campaign, but a country to run. Good luck!
You’re right, I’m being a bit disengenuous there. But I’m trying to draw a line between the typical GeNoCiDe JoE nonsense that some people push here, and what is going on now. There are a lot of well-meaning progressives who get caught up in that, not realizing their movement does nothing productive for anyone they claim to support. They may as well be tankies, in regards to their effect on what happens in the election.
Any replacement for Biden will not be more progressive, and in fact will be more centrist to try and win back that middle voter. Progressives can’t say “I won’t back Harris either, she likes cops too much” and not be part of the problem.
Even after all this, I still have confidence in Biden as a leader, and will vote for him if he remains on the ballot. But I now have much more severe doubts about his electability than I did on Wednesday.
I don’t know what was wrong with Joe Biden. It’s hard to imagine that they ever would have asked for a debate if this was the way he is normally. We’ve seen him recently holding press conferences and giving speeches and he seemed to be fine. They said he had a cold so maybe he really was on drugs — Nyquil or Mucinex or...
The biggest argument against removing Biden from the ticket against his will is that we went through a bunch of primaries, and he has won enough delegates to be the nominee. For the party that claims to be about protecting democracy, it would be a stretch to tell all those Primary voters “Hey, guess what? Your vote doesn’t really count” so directly.
But, there are contingency plans for a reason. If Biden’s doctors decide he has a sudden case of chronic not-gonna-win-itis that is affecting his health, and he gets a sudden medical diagnosis that forces him from the race (and the Presidency), there are precisely two people who can take over without the Democratic Party totally abandoning the democratic process:
the newly minted 47th President. Kamala Harris. While she did not get any delegates herself, as Biden’s VP she shares the ticket and would take over the Presidency once he backs out.
Dean Phillips , who as far as I know is the only other candidate to get any Primary delegates. No, “uncommitted” doesn’t count.
Nobody else can swoop in and take over, because they have no legitimate relationship to the Biden ticket, or to the primaries.
Yes, the primaries may be a huge joke, but they at least have the veneer of democracy over them. Primaries are formal elections run by each state, so there are laws to follow regarding how delegates are applied.
Here’s what I think now: I’m sure Barack Obama watched that debate, and came to the same conclusion we all did. If anyone has Biden’s ear on this, it’s Obama. Obama needs to get on the phone with Joe, and have a heart-to-heart about how fucking devastating that thing was. He should point out how much damage was done by RBG not retiring when it was her time to do so. I’m sure he had those discussions directly with her in 2015.
(Edited to add: according to the NYT, Obama’s not going there
“Bad debate nights happen,” Mr. Obama said in a statement. “Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself.”
I still have confidence that Joe can do the job, but not so much that he is electable anymore. I hope I’m wrong, and in November, if he is on the ballot I will still vote for him, and not regret it.
In retrospect, maybe we should have had a Primary debate after all.
Maybe the party needs to adopt bylaws saying that there shall be no fewer than three candidates in any Presidential primary, even for an incumbant. That will take away a bit of the stigma against challenging an incumbent. It would no longer be a direct challenge to the establishment, and more of a party role to fill.
I agree if it happens it should be Kamala, I only bring Dean Phillips up because he actually has a handful of delegates pledged to him. It is less of a stretch to pick someone who campaigned for the job and actually got primary votes vs. someone who didn’t even participate in the primaries.
The list itself looks reasonable. Note that on Wikipedia, this is not a blanket ban on discussion, but links that go to those sources generally get removed.
Sounds like a good idea, but I need more time to process the list. It looks like there are tiers to it, not every source is banned outright.
It’s all statistics. It means that if we ran the 2024 election millions of times in his model, Trump would win more than Biden. But we will only get one shot, so the number is kind of useless.
I was watching the Mets game this weekend on ESPN, and they were ahead of the Cubs by a few runs. ESPN has a tracker that estimates “Win Probability” and their model gave the Mets a 75% chance to win. But have you seen the Mets this year? They’ve blown a bunch of games late. Every Mets fan watching knew that their bullpen wasn’t good enough to merit that rating.
The Mets did end up winning that game. (Thanks, Grimace.) But that doesn’t change the fact that no matter what math is behind their win prediction model, it just doesn’t feel right to apply statistics like that to one-off events.
Don’t worry, little Yankee fan. It’s not your fault you ran headfirst into the Grimace Effect. Now come closer – I need to bottle up some of those tears for comfort when the wheels fall off the wagon after the ASG, as is tradition.
But I recall reading that the DAs office was in favor of a partial lifting of the order. There is no reason to keep the order in place for witnesses, for example.
Trump’s lawyers wanted a full cancellation of the order and as far as I can tell the DA’s side got everything it asked for and Trump’s side only got the things the DA agreed to.
As I understand it, though, the point of the gag order was to prevent the witnesses from being intimidated before their testimony. The trial is over, and there will be no more testimony. So a gag order on them is no longer necessary to protect the integrity of the trial process.
It’s not this judge’s job to police those cases, though. The other judges can apply whatever orders they need in order to protect the integrity of the trials they oversee. But this trial is over.
Judge Cannon has the ability to protect her case through orders like this. But it seems all she wants to do is protect her little Donnie-kins from that meanie Jack Smith…
Yes, and the Senate is one of the two houses of Congress. Senators don’t get treated any differently than Representatives in this respect. They get some protection from the Speech and Debate clause, but only for things they say while deliberating.
Maybe this is how all the grifters who raised money for Trump’s wall will justify it. “We always said we would build a wall on the Southern Border, we never said which Southern Border!”
I follow crypto, and Biden’s SEC has been inconsistent in its crypto policies. I think Gary Gensler thinks he’s a crypto expert, but gets a lot of it wrong. Still, though, even the US crypto exchanges asking for regulatory clarity have been playing loose with the rules a bit. The article mentions New York State’s beef with Coinbase, but that was in regards to its “Earn” products, which attempt to tie deposits with “rewards”, and convince people those rewards are the same thing as interest on their savings accounts. They aren’t really, even in Proof-of-Stake coins which are the closest thing.
But make no mistake, the only reason Trump now likes crypto is it allows foreign actors to contribute to his campaign while disguising the source of the funds. And since Trump has captured the RNC, any donation to his campaign is a donation directly to him and his legal fund. The Winklevii are US citizens, so they are not obligated to hide their contributions. They must realize that a good portion of that contribution goes directly into Trump’s pocket. That’s the only reasonable explanation for announcing this publically – in case Trump wins, they want their transaction formally recorded, and they will expect Trump to deliver.
The Winklevii sent BTC because they have a buttload of it, bought at a very low price. Their actual cost for that donation is basically the long-term capital gains tax (and maybe not even that if their accountants are creative).
And yes, Trump (or his campaign) have to convert that to fiat at an exchange. (Probably Gemini, owned by the Winklevii.) But the key thing is that with Crypto, they have no way of knowing where the donations are actually coming from. Someone in Saudi Arabia or Russia could be filling out donations forms through a VPN, and list their location as Branson, MO, and there would be no way for anyone to prove it wasn’t really from Branson. (Maybe if they were careless and reused BTC addresses. Some Monero shill will probably reply and make sure everyone knows how Monero is even better at money laundering…)
“I LOVE THE TEN COMMANDMENTS IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS, PRIVATE SCHOOLS, AND MANY OTHER PLACES, FOR THAT MATTER. READ IT — HOW CAN WE, AS A NATION, GO WRONG??? THIS MAY BE, IN FACT, THE FIRST MAJOR STEP IN THE REVIVAL OF RELIGION, WHICH IS DESPERATELY NEEDED, IN OUR COUNTRY. BRING BACK TTC!!! MAGA2024,” Trump wrote in the early...
All those guys he fired from the RNC would not have gone along with Trump’s mission for it: use it to pay his mounting legal bills. He doesn’t mind Charlie Kirk grifting it as long as he can grift it harder.
The primary for New York’s 16th congressional district, which takes place on Tuesday, has drawn record-breaking spending, with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) and a crypto-currency Super Pac behind the lion’s share of the funding....
We’ll find out eventually that the real investigation is over the fact that he paid in the first place, and didn’t follow their Lord and Savior’s command to simply grab them by the pussy. Perhaps Gaetz wasn’t famous enough at the time, so they didn’t let him do it.
Trump Media trades on NASDAQ, and of course uses a ticker that is also in use on the NYSE. Use djt:nasdaq to keep up to date on its falling stock price.
As video games develop more and more over the years, companies have been making them more and more realistic-looking. I can guess this is related to expectations, but am I the only one who doesn’t care about graphics? We could be using the same processing power to store worlds that have as much exploration potential as the...
All he did was not be Hillary Clinton, sit at a fancy desk and read names off a list.
Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham delivered this activist Supreme Court, by refusing to bring Obama’s last choice up to a vote, while rushing through the Republican President’s last choice in a similar situation. Any Republican President would have done the trick, as long as he read off the same list.
The 90-minute debate will include two commercial breaks, according to the network, and campaign staff may not interact with their candidate during that time....
LOS ANGELES – President Biden on Saturday night said he expects the winner of this year’s presidential election will likely have the chance to fill two vacancies on the Supreme Court – a decision he warned would be “one of the scariest parts” if his Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, is successful in...
If you mean that all six conservatives could be impeached today, there really is only damning evidence against two of them right now and impeachment has to start in the Republican-controlled House and get a 2/3 vote in the Senate, none of which have a chance of happening.
If you mean that Democrats could expand the Court to 15 today, that also has to go through the Republican House first, as well as centrist Democrats in both houses who might view that as too extreme. I am an advocate for expanding the Court, but I would stop at 13.
The way you do it is to - BOOM! - expand the Court to 13 on Day 1 of the next Biden administration, if Democrats also have both houses of Congress, nuking the Fillibuster if necessary, but delay it’s effect until September 2026.
Then, go to Republicans and give them a choice. Either we can reform the SC and institute meaningful reform, or Republicans can watch Biden appoint four judges in their 40’s to lifetime appointments, and they can wait until they have the Presidency and both houses of Congress to make a tit-for-tat response. (Biden’s appointments would only be subject to those term limits if the amendment passes before he makes the appointment.)
We can do a lot in an amendment, including instituting term limits, a firm code of ethics, a better process for confirmation where the Senate can’t just ignore an appointment, and formally fixing the size of the SCOTUS to match the number of appellate courts.
Foreign diplomats react with horror to Biden’s dismal debate performance | CNN Politics (www.cnn.com)
President Joe Biden’s dismal showing at the CNN presidential debate against former President Donald Trump resonated around the world, with foreign diplomats expressing shock and concern while raising questions about the implications for a consequential US election that could upend the foreign policy status-quo should Trump be...
Hear what Joe and Jill Biden said about his debate performance | CNN Politics (www.cnn.com)
What does a President EXCLUSIVELY do?
Here are a few abilities that are exclusive to the US President:...
In Post-Debate Poll, Voters Think Biden Is Too Old to Be President Yet Alternative Candidates Perform Similarly Against Trump (www.dataforprogress.org)
Opinion | To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Race (www.nytimes.com)
Archived version
CNN's debate was no fair fight (www.salon.com)
I don’t know what was wrong with Joe Biden. It’s hard to imagine that they ever would have asked for a debate if this was the way he is normally. We’ve seen him recently holding press conferences and giving speeches and he seemed to be fine. They said he had a cold so maybe he really was on drugs — Nyquil or Mucinex or...
Here’s why it would be tough for Democrats to replace Joe Biden on the presidential ticket (apnews.com)
[Suggestion] Disallow the use of sources deprecated by the Wikipedia editing community for unreliability (en.m.wikipedia.org)
cross-posted from: lemmy.dbzer0.com/post/23066599...
Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory. (www.natesilver.net)
First Presidential Debate Megapost!
Here we go, the first Presidential debate between Biden and Trump begins at 9 PM Eastern/6 PM Pacific....
Pyongyang Says It Will Send Troops to Ukraine Within a Month (www.kyivpost.com)
Public funds for religious charter school would be unconstitutional, Oklahoma high court says (apnews.com)
Supreme Court rejects challenge to Biden admin's contact with social media companies - ABC News (abcnews.go.com)
GOP states claimed the White House tried to censor COVID, election information.
Rep. Lauren Boebert cruises to GOP primary victory in Colorado's 4th District (www.axios.com)
Trump gag order partially lifted in hush money case ahead of first presidential debate (www.cnbc.com)
Special counsel probed Trump Mar-a-Lago trip that aides 'kept quiet' weeks before FBI search: Sources - ABC News (abcnews.go.com)
One witness was told Trump was “checking on the boxes,” sources said
Arizona Republicans call on GOP candidate to withdraw for misrepresenting military service (www.rawstory.com)
North Korea building border ‘wall’, satellite images reveal (www.bbc.com)
Trump cranks up false, inflammatory messages to rake in campaign cash (www.washingtonpost.com)
Democrats say the fundraising emails falsely suggesting he could be executed were tempting more violence....
After getting money from billionaires, Trump says he will give unlimited green cards to foreigners to work American jobs (www.nationalreview.com)
Winklevoss twins say they each donated $1M in bitcoin to Trump (thehill.com)
Accused adulterer Trump who paid to keep Stormy Daniels affair secret professes ‘love’ for the Ten Commandments (www.independent.co.uk)
“I LOVE THE TEN COMMANDMENTS IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS, PRIVATE SCHOOLS, AND MANY OTHER PLACES, FOR THAT MATTER. READ IT — HOW CAN WE, AS A NATION, GO WRONG??? THIS MAY BE, IN FACT, THE FIRST MAJOR STEP IN THE REVIVAL OF RELIGION, WHICH IS DESPERATELY NEEDED, IN OUR COUNTRY. BRING BACK TTC!!! MAGA2024,” Trump wrote in the early...
Donald Trump’s Get-Out-The-Vote Plan is Bonkers | Washington Monthly (washingtonmonthly.com)
Race to unseat New York progressive ‘most expensive House primary ever’ (www.theguardian.com)
The primary for New York’s 16th congressional district, which takes place on Tuesday, has drawn record-breaking spending, with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (Aipac) and a crypto-currency Super Pac behind the lion’s share of the funding....
Witness tells House Ethics Committee that Matt Gaetz paid her for sex: Sources (abcnews.go.com)
House Ethics Committee releases statement regarding Representative Matt Gaetz (ethics.house.gov)
Key point seems to be:...
DJT shares tumble 13% as Trump Media stock sell-off accelerates (www.cnbc.com)
Ex-Proud Boy Is Running for High-Ranking Position in Miami-Dade GOP (www.miaminewtimes.com)
Am I the only one who doesn't really care about graphics?
As video games develop more and more over the years, companies have been making them more and more realistic-looking. I can guess this is related to expectations, but am I the only one who doesn’t care about graphics? We could be using the same processing power to store worlds that have as much exploration potential as the...
Misleading GOP videos of Biden are going viral. The fact checks have trouble keeping up. (www.nbcnews.com)
Donald Trump Airport? Trump on the $500 bill? Republicans can't stop honoring ex-president (www.usatoday.com)
Biden and Trump campaigns agreed to mic muting, podiums among rules for upcoming CNN debate | CNN Politics (edition.cnn.com)
The 90-minute debate will include two commercial breaks, according to the network, and campaign staff may not interact with their candidate during that time....
Trump threatens to cut off aid to Ukraine 'prior to taking the White House as president-elect' (kyivindependent.com)
Biden says the next president may get to name two Supreme Court justices (www.npr.org)
LOS ANGELES – President Biden on Saturday night said he expects the winner of this year’s presidential election will likely have the chance to fill two vacancies on the Supreme Court – a decision he warned would be “one of the scariest parts” if his Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, is successful in...