Yeah hubris probably isn’t the way to go when you’re losing in national polls 10 pts below where you were in 2020 at this time… And you’re losing in every battleground state… And you’re losing black and Hispanic voters… And the desperation play of asking for this debate to break the steady decline in polling utterly backfired.
Riddle me this: what if Biden’s condition worsens from here until November and it’s far past the convention to do anything? He’s not getting younger. The bad days, the sundowning will only get worse.
People are itching to vote for anyone but a senile geratric and a criminal geriatric. Give the people what they want.
I’m as flabbergasted as anyone that polls are this close but here we are. Right-wing media controls the narrative and has had a stranglehold on this country. The polls don’t lie; they’re the canary in the coal mine sounding the alarm. So let’s face it: there is no datapoint you can point to that Biden where Biden isn’t doing significantly-worse compared to his 2020 campaign. I don’t give a fuck how you try to spin it, that’s not a good sign. Face hard truths of reality. The propaganda of the right is working with key voting groups whether we like it or not.
Neither cold nor stutter causes someone to jump from abortion to immigration mid-sentence and routinely lose their train of thought. How much experience do you have being around old people? My wife and I work in a hospital, but shit you should he able to relate with grandparents in their 80s. It could even be sundowning. I also don’t believe your 3rd point is doing you any favors. Biden campaigned on being a fighter to push the bully back. If he can’t hold his own as an 81-year-old, then that is very clearly a problem. Someone as experienced as Biden should easily be able to hold their own in a debate, being in politics as long as he has.
Look, I voted for Biden once and if it comes down to it I’d vote for a corpse over Trump. But as I’ve said over and over again: it’s not me you have to convince. The 2020 election was won by 40,000 votes across 3 states. And as I said, by every single metric, Biden is performing far worse than then. Not good. I hate to say it but I’d bet against Biden winning now.
Biden asked for the debate out of desperation to reach voters. They set most of the rules. Both campaigns signed off on the rules. It backfired tremendously, irreparably.
"But lost in the hand wringing was Donald Trump’s usual bombastic litany of lies, hyperbole, bigotry, ignorance, and fear mongering. His performance demonstrated once again that he is a danger to democracy and unfit for office.”...
June 28 (Reuters) - A group of U.S. voters who were unable to choose between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before Thursday’s presidential debate delivered their verdicts after the contest and it was almost universally bad news for Biden....
This is a focus-group of undecided voters – a small population set to begin with and a sample set designed to be small, but who will clearly decide this election on the margins. You do understand how focus groups work and quite literally all campaigns use these, correct?
And finally, little data is better than no data. Nobody came away from the debate thinking Biden won; so it’s not particularly a stretch to see this would hurt him with critical battleground state undecided voters.
Edit: Whew, talk about vote manipulation. I’m astounded by the complete and utter lack of substantive rebuttal.
Not to say this falls on deaf ears because I appreciate your actually understanding how scientific surveys work, but as you said yourself: These focus-groups of undecided voters are certainly warning-signs, and if it was flipped around, users would be up-voting this and BIden’s campaign would be touting this as a great thing.
I’m all for larger studies being conducted to show the damage done; the question will then be: How will you change your perception on what needs to be done?
And golly, if only we had large sample sizes of populations comparing Donald Trump and Joe Biden in battleground swing-states. If only we could then compare those numbers to their respective numbers in 2020… That, combined with said focus group insights, sure would be useful! /s
And that’s just the start, pre-debate no less. I cannot think of a single data-point where Biden isn’t doing significantly worse than his 2020 performance. National approval ratings, black/hispanic vote, voter enthusiasm, etc.
Given how pivotal this moment is, I think it kind of is. Considering only 40,000 votes decided 2020, a handful of undecided voters is extremely vital. What other format would you have it in?
Because undecided swing-voters in battle-ground states will decide this election on the margins. It’s Not you. It’s not me. It’s those stupid undecided voters that we unfortunately need to cater to, and Joe Biden lost some of those voters in the debate. If the electorate were informed and intelligent, we wouldn’t have either of these candidates in the first place.
Reminder that 2020 was decided by something like 40,000 votes thanks to the electoral college.
Yes, yes we are. I feel your pain. I said it before and I’ll say it again: I would personally vote for a corpse, but it’s not me you have to convince.
And if I want to be slightly more kind and less impatient, many humans may mean well, but are so woefully uneducated and uninformed that they fall prey for the mass amount of right-wing misinformation from billions of dollars injected into the media-stream.
Again, you don’t seem to understand the intent of focus groups or why they’re used by political campaigns. In a way focus groups are more akin to Case Studies, which are still extremely insightful.
Besides, we already have a broader set of polling data of battleground states, and what we see here is a reflection of those wider, scientific polls that didn’t bode well for Joe Biden even pre-Debate.
The mere fact that ANY random sample of undecided voters came away with these views, is downright dangerous.
And how, qualitatively, did these focus groups triangulate where undecided voters are on the issue of who to vote for?
To properly employ a focus group, you would first need to poll an appropriate sample size of undecided voters then you target demographics within the sample to gain insight into why they answered their poll as they did.
Isn’t it quite probable they did exactly this? They certainly didn’t just pull these people off the streets. They had to aggregate undecided voters to begin with, after all.
I think it’s reaching for straws to suggest this isn’t saying what we already recognize from polling conducted in battleground states.
Edit:
About 20% of voters say they have not picked a candidate in this year’s presidential race, are leaning toward third-party options or might not vote at all, according to the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Reuters interviewed 15 such voters ahead of Thursday’s debate, and they agreed to be interviewed again after the event about whether the debate changed their views.
About 20% of voters say they have not picked a candidate in this year’s presidential race, are leaning toward third-party options or might not vote at all, according to the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Reuters interviewed 15 such voters ahead of Thursday’s debate, and they agreed to be interviewed again after the event about whether the debate changed their views.
The data wasn’t good before, and it doesn’t take a statistician to know they’re going to be as-bad or worse than before post-debate. I’ll happily take that bet with you and circle back in the coming weeks as state-wide polling proves this.
Now those are utterly meaningless. Incumbency worked so well for Trump, amirite?
I can’t believe you can write that with a straight face when he’s losing in national polling, losing with battleground state swing voters, and losing large chunks of critical Hispanic and Black voters.
Every single data-point is significantly-worse than Biden’s 2020 performance where he won by a whole 40,000 votes in battleground states.
It’s irrelevant if it doesn’t actually propel you past the finish-line, though, isn’t it? So explain to me how incumbency and the DNC “building itself around” Biden is substantively altering the outcome of, for emphasis:
Losing large chunks of critical Hispanic & Black Voters (voters who shouldn’t be in question to begin with)
Losing Battleground swing-state voters.
Losing in national polling versus Trump (where he was ahead in 2020 or at worst even)
Has aggregate approval ratings in the 30s.
I’ll wait.
Next, answer this: Joe Biden is not the nominee yet either, for the convention has yet to happen. Now let’s be clear: In the event Biden voluntarily steps down and either an open convention occurs or he endorses, is it really that inconceivable for you to believe overnight polling for such a candidate would skyrocket as both grassroots and establishment and MASSIVE widespread media press inundate such a person with coverage…?
So at the end of the day, we have high confidence Biden will lose in November 6th if we stay the course. If that’s the case, I believe we should take the chance to put someone fresh in and who is younger. That assuages a major concern for 70% of the electorate and reinvigorates people to vote for someone new. As Mehdi Hasan said, “Americans love new shit.”
I will agree with the longstanding precedent of incumbent-advantage; but I do not see how that shores up support here and in the now. Put it this way: Polls show incumbent advantage is doing fundamentally nothing to put Biden past the numbers he needs in order to cross the finish-line.
And But don’t you think Biden’s numbers – steadily declining for months if not years, mind you – are sort of baked in? Media saturation has taken place, and Biden in the spotlight long enough that projections would suggest nothing will fundamentally change and that these are losing numbers – yes? So between knowing we will likely lose versus taking the gamble of garnering viral excitement from nominating a younger fresh face, the latter would be better in my view.
Look I’m sorry, but you gave zero response to the damaging statistics I mentioned except to point vaguely toward incumbency which clearly isn’t helping enough with the output of those statistics. So can changing candidates do more? I think so.
All undecided voters in a U.S. swing states focus group hosted by pollster Frank Luntz said President Biden should be replaced as the Democratic nominee after watching his first presidential debate against former President Trump.
Nate Silver and the NYT editorial board have both called for Biden to step down.
By every metric Biden is performing significantly-worse compared to his 2020 run against Trump. Biden needs to step down now while we have time.
This gives a huge opportunity for Democrats to take back the narrative and inject some excitement into nominating a fresh, younger, face. Free viral media attention would go on every day until the election and Democrats can turn around and say, “we listened to the electorate’s concerns on age, are responding.” Meanwhile the Republican propaganda machine wouldn’t have prepared talking-points lined up.
Finally, look, I voted for Biden and I’d vote for a corpse if it came down to it, but it’s not me you have to convince. We elected Biden because he said he’d take the fight to the bully. He’s not the Teddy Roosevelt fighter we need to push a bully back. He’s not convincing ANY battleground state swing-voters with a performance like that which will resonate over any subsequent teleprompter speeches he may give thereafter.
Edit: Hey folks, if you have the energy to down-vote, would you mind mustering a bit more to actually put your convictions to the test and discuss with me? I can otherwise only conclude you’ve got no substantive rebuttal and this is denial acting out. I’d appreciate it. Thank you.
Man I’ve never seen media like this. I’ve watched:
2 different NYT podcasts
Jon Stewart’s comments
Kari Couric’s discussion.
NPR’s post-debate
Washington Week’s round-table, led by The Atlantic editor-in-chief
Pod Save America (former Obama/Biden staffers)
Silver’s analysis.
… And the sentiment behind Biden stepping down is vast. Talk behind closed-doors is that US House Democrats are extremely worried about their races given downballot effect.
I think it must be done or I’d absolutely bet on Trump winning in November, sadly.
In this instance, I would actually trust a Republican statistician over a Democrat to convey some semblance of reality given the damage-control within the Democratic party. But these are simply pollsters; and pollsters don’t lie; and these are undecided voters in battleground states, specifically. So unless you can actually identify what is wrong with his methodology, I think you should consider this as a hard-truth… And it doesn’t take much imagination to see how people could come away from that debate and lean toward Trump, considering universally everyone agrees Biden lost that debate in one of the worst performances in history.
Finally, why the fuck would Luntz show these data when it actually reveals a key issue with Democrats? If he was that biased, shouldn’t he be fudging the numbers and giving false-data that swing-voters love Biden? Think this through.
Axios is reporting this, after all.
Nothing doomer about what has been a slow and steady decline in Biden’s polling for months and months on end. This is more the final straw that broke the camel’s back.
Pro-tip: When “internal polling shows something different” is said by the White House but they won’t reveal the data, it means they’re lying for damage-control.
Edit: I take it many of you didn’t actually watch the debate, did you?
Ah yes, right-wing authoritarianism that helped cause mass immigration from regional instability thanks to ignoring climate change and sowing global conflicts… Let’s just give the fox the keys to the henhouse.
All undecided voters in a U.S. swing states focus group hosted by pollster Frank Luntz said President Biden should be replaced as the Democratic nominee after watching his first presidential debate against former President Trump.
Newsweek is tabloid-adjacent.
Biden is underperforming his 2020 run by pretty much every metric. It’s time to try something different while we still have time.
If they haven’t changed their minds yet, then they aren’t going to. It’s time to try someone different.
Besides, you’re not even needing Republican votes. You just need undecided votes and to energize democratic voters who hate both candidates with age being a big factor.
That is complete and utter bullshit and smarter minds than me are already advising it, including one of the biggest analysts in the industry, Nate Silver. Here, let me walk you through it:
I’ve thought this through for quite some time and I think you’re missing the opportunity for Democrats to seize the narrative.
“We listened to voters who were unsatisfied with either candidate, a large majority who said age is a real concern for them.”
"Joe Biden stepped down for the American People to let a younger generation lead."
FREE VIRAL MEDIA TIME for months on end about the fresh face of the Democratic party.
A complete lack of developed right-wing talking-points to disseminate.
It doesn’t have to – nor should it be – Harris. I can think of half a dozen other candidates with semi-national profiles who could easily surge in polling with such viral media attention following a Biden resignation.
All we know is what doesn’t work, and what doesn’t work was shown last night. It has been showing in poll after poll after poll despite people burying their heads in the sand: a President with approval ratings in the 30s, and a Presidential candidate who is FAR behind in every data-point compared to where he was in 2020. Need I remind you that Biden took this debate out of pure desperation to begin with, and now he’s now 2 full steps further back than where he needs to be as my link on battle-ground undecided voters proves.
I’ve listened to Jon Stewart, Katie Couric, 2 different NYT podcasts, post-PBS analysis, Pod Save America (former Obama/VP Biden staffers), Washington Week roundtable – and they are all echoing the same fucking thing:
I’m laughing you don’t seem to understand how statistics and probability work. But please, DO tell how he was wrong – I’m going to enjoy this.
But hey, excellent attempt to cop-out of the myriad of other points in my comment, buddy. Can only respond to maybe 10% of a comment but want to try to take down a leading statistician? Okie-dokie!
That would be interesting and I’m frankly open to it.
I don’t think people not voting is a big deal because frankly we didn’t have a legitimate primary season this cycle anyway. More importantly, if Biden himself voluntarily stepped down and endorsed someone else, then that at least channels those votes through Biden.
I’ve thought this through for quite some time and I think you’re missing the opportunity for Democrats to seize the narrative.
“We listened to voters who were unsatisfied with either candidate, a large majority who said age is a real concern for them.”
"Joe Biden stepped down for the American People to let a younger generation lead."
FREE VIRAL MEDIA TIME for months on end about the fresh face of the Democratic party.
A complete lack of developed right-wing talking-points to disseminate.
With perks like that who needs donors and TV ad time? This isn’t the 80s. Elections aren’t won on television ads.
All we know is what doesn’t work, and what doesn’t work was shown last night. It has been showing in poll after poll after poll despite people burying their heads in the sand: a President with approval ratings in the 30s, and a Presidential candidate who is FAR behind in every data-point compared to where he was in 2020.
I’ve listened to Jon Stewart, Katie Couric, 2 different NYT podcasts, post-PBS analysis, Pod Save America (former Obama/VP Biden staffers) – and they are all echoing the same fucking thing:
I think it’s funny how folks think a sore throat causes one to jump from Abortion to an anecdote on Immigration mid-sentence. The copium is astounding.
I’ll agree that it’s a dilemma for sure. To me I think both situations carry baggage. At this point, things are looking so atrociously bad that I think the risk is worth it and any candidate nominated at convention who may have baggage will probably running off the highs of being a fresh face before the baggage becomes a serious issue (and sad we have to talk about baggage when Trump is the opposition). Realistically it would probably be Whitmer or Newsom.
The thing to me is that this debate isn’t a one-off. It’s the culmination of what people have seen and been warning of and what’s been reflected in polls for quite a long time now.
I’ll be clear that I didn’t vote for Biden either during the 2020 primaries but I did ultimately vote for him in November. I’ll vote for him again if it comes down to it. But I’m not who you need to convince, unfortunately.
Edit: Let me also just say that it’s better now than later. What if Biden has a medical emergency in October? At the rate of his decline and age that is a very real possibility.
Well said. I wish Bernie was 20 years younger and I’d agree on that as well. Personally, at this point, I just think they need to be young-ish, and half-ways charismatic and they’d ride off the viral media energy of being a fresh face in what is an American idol popularity contest. Whitmer at this point would be my preference.
This is such a huge opportunity for Democrats to take back the narrative and steal all the energy in the room.
Oh I agree, don’t get me wrong. But let’s be honest: Biden doesn’t have the grassroots fundraising that propelled Obama to victory and also gave Bernie a good shot at the primaries for how fringe he was.
Even I who’ve given loads of money in the past am exhausted by the fundraising calls under Biden and at this point post-debate think it’s a wasted investment.
I’m just assuaging concerns about money when you can substitute viral marketing which would naturally come from the unprecedented nature of having an incumbent president step down and endorse some other individual. Months of free coverage.
Biden sucked last night and I have serious concerns about his physical and cognitive faculties to run the country.
But I’m still voting for him for reasons you mentioned.
That won’t stop me from advocating for him to step down and put someone else up for the election, but if it comes down to it, I will still vote for Biden.
With all due respect I appreciate the attempt at spin-doctoring what happened and giving an outlet for Biden, but I cannot conceive of how a cold warrants that performance for anyone who suffered through watching that. Even Trump did better while actively having COVID on stage back in the 2020 debates.
Many of us have been sounding the alarm of events like this that were matter-of-factly non-existent during, say, then-VP Biden’s debates with the likes of Paul Ryan. I get why there’s incumbent inertia behind Biden, but now is very little data that portends a good end to this election for Biden, relative to his standings in 2020.
In order to viably attain the “undecided” swing-voters, we need to meet them half-way and give them an outlet that doesn’t place them into a dichotomous situation of voting for two people they clearly do not like.
These are all fair points and points I’m sure to raise in the months ahead should Biden remain the nominee, but the way I see it is that polls haven’t budged; aggregate approval rating for Biden continues to decline. We can argue how much this debate hurt Biden, but we can all agree it certainly did not help. And if it didn’t help, what else can be done and said that hasn’t already been done and said over the past years? Polling isn’t just hard to budge positively, but it’s actively trending opposite to what we need, relative to Biden’s position in 2020. If the case of saying, “look it’s between the old guy, and the fascist twice-impeached convicted felon with 3 more trials to go and who tried to overturn a free and fair election” hasn’t worked yet, what makes anyone think it’s going to work in the coming months? Hel this desperation is what led the Biden campaign to accept this debate in the first place – a risk gambit that simply did not pay off. A tough sell.
So what do we do?
Well, in my view Democrats restore some trust by Biden publicly and voluntarily acknowledging the situation head-on, stepping down, and opening up the convention. Democrats nominate someone half-ways young and charismatic – Whitmer, Booker, Newsom, Buttigieg – I don’t particularly care – and I think the freshness of a face and the addressing of youth will be enough to sway swing voters.
Why do you think 3 previous Presidents kicked the can of withdrawal down the road? Because it was always going to be a cluster-fuck and politically-backfiring. .
Let me know when you have the magic solution that would achieve zero deaths, zero equipment loss, and a stable government.
Let me know when it dawns on you that the number of troops lossed annually by remaining in Afghanistan equates to more than the withdrawal – and yet you don’t seem to care about this. I wonder why.
Remember that the vast majority of equipment “left behind” in Afghanistan was equipment we had already given to the Afghan government and the Afghan National Army. That they turned around and immediately surrendered is more on them than Biden.
Ultimately, the Taliban were well-equipped and well-armed enough to push around the Afghan Government and US Govt. I hardly think a blackhawk and some hummers is going to make a difference, but people like you sure do love the negative optics for some reason.
I appreciate Biden doing what the other Presidents couldn’t. He saved American lives in the long-run
Forget the fact that this deflects the ultimate point: Biden actually got us out of a war; All Trump did was:
Back out of the major diplomatic Iran Nuclear Deal
Launch missiles at Syria
Do nothing when Russia attacked Ukraine during the Kerch Strait Incident
Listening to more of the analysis and clips from the debate, Biden’s performance reminded me of high school and college presentations where students over-prepared by following a very rigid, memorized script but derail because they forget a single key word or trigger. This isn’t a very robust presentation strategy that can easily fail even with younger minds, let alone someone in their 80s.
Agreed. The cold thing doesn’t cause one to jump from abortion to immigration mid-sentence, either. Blaming the cold makes Biden look weaker, considering Trump had covid during the 2020 debate and still did comparatively better.
Really. You want me to show polls for something that hasn’t happened yet? In 2020, what are you talking about? Half these people I mentioned didn’t even run in the 2020 Primaries, forgetting the obvious logical fallacy that “Who does well in the primaries predicts who does better a year from then in the General Election.” In 2020, Joe Biden was 4 years younger and far less senile than he shows now while Trump’s support was lower mostly thanks to a botched handling of covid at the time.
There is not one data-point where Biden isn’t performing worse than he did at this time in 2020.
In the event Biden voluntarily steps down and either an open convention occurs or he endorses, is it really that inconceivable for you to believe overnight polling for such a candidate would skyrocket as both grassroots and establishment and MASSIVE widespread media press inundate such a person with coverage…?
That’s a fair point but just consider these points:
That’s an insane polling for someone who has not once threw their hat in the ring and actually campaigned nationally outside of California.
We’re already starting with a President who is predicted by polling to lose to Donald Trump.
Key to note, Biden’s numbers are generally baked in. Everyone knows everything about Biden, and the law of diminishing returns suggests nobody is going to find out something they dont’ already know.
Whereas just the opposite is true with the likes of Whitmer & Newsom: months of viral media attention, actual national campaigns and speeches, debates, interviews – have the opportunity for someone to familiarize themselves with such alternate candidates and see the contrast of, “Wow, this guy can actually talk coherently and is far younger…” So you have to tell me with a straight face that once committed to be the nominee their name-recognition and approval skyrocket overnight.
Mentioned weaknesses of candidates can be offset by a VP pick, as they always are.
In truth, we really haven’t been through this already. To conclude otherwise is to suggest that Joe Biden is literally the best candidate Democrats can field, which at his age and with his debate performance, is an incredibly low bar.
There is fundamentally ZERO data supporting a Biden victory this November. Think about that.
One would agree that while these are not snapshots in time and October surprises can occur, it’s certainly not a GOOD sign that Biden is.
For example, we would consider it to be a pretty good sign if Biden was leading in national polling 80% to Trump 20%, correct? Now obviously this doesn’t mean something can’t change between now and November, but it would certainly correlate with good prospects - agreed?
Now reflect on that fact that national aggregate polling of all reputable national surveys show Biden trails his 2020 performance at the same time By nearly 10%… When you consider 2020 was decided on the margins in battleground states by ~40,000 voters, this is a terrible sign. Especially when specific polling on black and hispanic and swing-voters in these specific battleground states ALSO bodes worse for Biden this time around.
Many people did not vote for Biden; hell in Florida, they didn’t even hold the Primaries it went by default to Biden. An uncontested primaries isn’t exactly proof people will be upset – especially when polling data is already telling us the vast majority of the electorate is unhappy with voting for Joe Biden. And call me crazy but I’m not too worried about the dyed-in-the-wool Democrat from California upset that we change from Biden. I’m pretty sure they’ll vote for anyone else the Democrats appoint.
Joe Biden already is our Sarah Palin. You’re struggling to find any conceivable data to support your assertions and you know it.
Exactly!! That’s precisely my point! You tried to claim millions of people voted for Biden in the primaries when that doesn’t translate to battleground swing-state voters.
Biden is the guaranteed loss based on all available data we have, relative to his performance in 2020. Those battleground swing voters? Biden is ALREADY losing them. Besides, there’s a non-zero chance that Joe Biden could suffer an emergency health crisis after the convention… And then we’re REALLY fucked because at best we default to Harris who polls worse than everyone.
If you magically think that Newsom can ramp up a presidential campaign from scratch and beat Biden’s name recognition and win Wisconsin in only 6 months, you’re being insanely optimistic.
Yes, he absolutely can and I’m not the only one who believes it. If you don’t think there wouldn’t be a media frenzy over a sudden new face on the scene you’d be crazy. Whitmer, Newsom, or hey – how about Josh Shapiro who actually outperformed Biden himself in Pennsylvania…? If that’s really your concern, after all.
The window of time closes after the Convention. After that, we’re stuck.
I repeat: Biden is performing significantly worse in every single data-point compared to his 2020 run where he eeked a win by sliver. If he was up 20 points I wouldn’t even be saying a word. But after that debate performance seen by 50 million people? Every indicator for the election is only going to get worse for Biden.
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First Presidential Debate Megapost!
Here we go, the first Presidential debate between Biden and Trump begins at 9 PM Eastern/6 PM Pacific....