ArugulaZ,

It’s not like anyone’s going to do anything about it.

TokenBoomer,

Someone will. We will. Our current trajectory is unsustainable.

bradorsomething,

It’s only unsustainable if you want everyone to survive. Too many people are quietly okay with losing a few billion strangers due to their certainty they’ll be fine.

phoenixz,

That’s what I said a good 25 years ago when I learned about climate change. It went through a bunch of name changes, there have been multiple world meetings about it to see how much further we could push it up to sustain “our economies” and the few little suggestions that came out of that were completely ignored so that we could have the next world economic forum or whatever.

If any politician would actually do something REAL, I’d support it. I have not seen anything beyond “well let’s try to change cars to electrical over a 20 year period but also dump nuclear power so effectively all electrical cars still run coal”. We. Need. To. Stop. Using. Cars. Car use needs to drop by 95%, THAT would make a difference. Start converting 90% of car infrastructure to park, bicycle infrastructure and public transportation like trains and busses. Convert cargo trucks to electrical, start investing like crazy in nuclear power plants. Push companies to either let employees work from home or pay tripple tax. Tax the shit out of anyone earning more than 10 times the average. Start adding sulfur solutions to kerosine so that airplanes can start spewing it in the atmosphere to lower temperatures… Any of those are solutions, I haven’t seen any of it.

Nobody is going to do anything because politicians are dumb egocentric assholes that only care about their own reelection.

We’re fucked in the next 30 years or so

If Trump gets elected, we’ll be fucked within 10. I’m honestly thinking at this point that maybe we should just all vote for trump. Get it over with, kill this world, humanity is a failed experiment.

TokenBoomer,

I went through an accelerationist adjacent phase a few years ago, then I realized that what I was accelerating towards would happen regardless. From a utilitarian perspective, I don’t know which path mitigates more human deaths.

set_secret,

Stopping meat eating would have a bigger impact on climate change than removing cars, and that’s doable for everyone. Also EV cars do reduce the co2, and as grids get cleaner cars do too. Additionally many put solar on their houses to charge Evs.

Whist i agree car numbers should definitely be reduced, people should work from home far more for example, but meat is a greater problem that we could all address immediately without dismantling infrastructure.

phoenixz,

Yeah, the “stop eating meat is doable” is not doable. Ppeoli simply won’t do it. What you can (should) do is increase taxes on meat. If meat becomes twice as expensive, people will eat it less. Use the extra tax income to subsidize meat alternatives, make those more attractive.

We can do with a LOT less cars if we wanted to. Same as with meat, we don’t want it. Still, most car rides are under 3 miles, which can easily be done by bike but good luck being the politician pushing bikes. Or increased taxes on meat.

set_secret,

No reason we cant do all of these things. Taxing meat is a geat idea too.

phoenixz,

There is a big reason we can’t do any of that.

The general public is dumb, and politicians happily watch the world burn if they can rule the ashes.

Because of that, no politician will ever push for any of that.

set_secret,

Sadly you are probably correct here too

TheGalacticVoid,

I don’t like this mindset, because while there are plenty of businesses, billionaires, and governments that keep burning coal to keep their cash flowing, there’s plenty of scientists, activists, engineers, governments, and organizations that are making a difference. We shouldn’t be discrediting the hard work of people who are trying to save us or at least delay doomsday.

Nobody,

There is no ceiling. It might go up 6 or 7C. The people who have the power to change things do not give a shit if the rest of us die. They don’t care, and they won’t change anything. That’s the world we live in.

foggy,

They (selfishly) believe that allowing the problem to flourish is what will get us to solve it.

They’re not wrong. There’s just way better, more humane approaches.

So you’re mostly right. Because they know they have the wealth to weather the discomfort in comfort. But it is accurate that humans historically are fucking aces at reacting and kinda piss poor at proacting.

KISSmyOSFeddit,

Yes, they are wrong. Because we don’t know if there are positive feedback loops that will take us beyond survivable temperatures once we’ve crossed an invisible line.
Even the ultra-rich won’t survive +5C because the entire concept of “wealth” falls apart when society does.

SlopppyEngineer, (edited )

Not really. Economies started to slow down and crash when warming gets over 2°C and CO2 production crashes with it.

Nobody,

Finally some good news on the climate. Our ability to fuck the Earth will mostly go away when our civilization collapses. We might even get a second Genghis Khan cooling when everyone dies.

CanadaPlus,

Source? (The past tense make me think you’re quoting a paper)

SlopppyEngineer,

There isn’t one definitive paper I can give. They’re are of course also papers claiming the opposite.

I’ve seen multiple articles about this. Less yield from staple crops, productivity loss with heatwaves, storm damage. There are a bunch of papers too, usually about a specific region. But roughly above 2°C, the hurt really begins with the cost to the economy exceeding almost every country’s growth. Exact numbers differ per article.

CanadaPlus,

Too bad, I’ll have to hunt around myself. Simulation is always a bit vulnerable to assumptions when human behavior is involved, but it’s definitely worth trying to model things.

If that’s true, the political landscape is going to become starkly different. We expect growth right now; it’s used as the yardstick of economic success. Obviously past civilisations didn’t, and we could go back, even peacefully for all I know, but it would be uncharted territory post-industrialisation.

I kind of suspect climate adaptation produces more CO2 than other forms of activity, because it would be construction heavy. I wonder if that’s factored it. Actually, I wonder what the adaptation assumptions are in general.

CylonBunny,
@CylonBunny@lemmy.world avatar

There is a problem of lag. By the time temperatures are high enough to force the economy to stop, the amount of CO2 will be sufficient to continue pushing the temperature up considerably.

queermunist,
@queermunist@lemmy.ml avatar

The problem is that feedback loops start to kick in above 2°C so it doesn’t matter if the economy crashes.

In fact, in some cases that makes things even worse. One example is that without smokestacks and ships pumping out sulfur dioxide the albedo of the atmosphere will rapidly drop, which might cause immediate and rapid warming over a period of only a few years.

We could be pushed past 2.5°C or even 3°C without industrial forces contributing at all.

Poem_for_your_sprog,

Not if, when

Aurora_TheFirstLight,

This why argued we might as well make it worse maybe we will suffer a bit less is unlikely change is coming in time anyways

CanadaPlus, (edited )

Well, renewables seem to be saving our undeserving asses, just by virtue of finally getting cheap.

dgmib,

Yes and no. Renewables are now cheaper than other forms of energy but cost isn’t the only issue.

There are practical limits on how many renewables projects we can build and integrate at a time. We’re not even remotely close to building them fast enough to save anything. We can’t even build them fast enough to keep up with the ever increasing demand energy.

Nuclear is expensive as fuck but we need to be building more of it as well as renewables because we can’t build enough renewables fast enough to avert the catastrophe, and that’s about the only other tech we have that can generate energy in the massive quantities needed without significant greenhouse gas emissions.

CanadaPlus,

I don’t think that’s quite true. Where I live it has expanded from nothing to a major power source in just a few years. We’ll need grid storage of some kind to kick fossil fuels completely, but that seems surmountable. Worst case scenario we build pumped air and just eat some round trip losses.

Nuclear plants take many years to get off the ground, so I’m not sure that’s actually an easier solution. Once they’re up and running at scale they’re actually really cheap per unit production, so I would have agreed with you a decade ago, but as it is solar and wind have just pulled ahead.

dgmib,

Don’t take my word for it. Look up the numbers for yourself and do the math.

Search for “National GHG inventory {your country}”.

You find a report listing (among a bunch of other things) the amount of electricity generated each year by each method, and the emissions from each. Look up the total TWh of electricity produced by fossil fuels.

Then look at the total TWh from renewables, and rate it has been growing Y-o-Y and extrapolate until it reaches the number needed to eliminate fossil fuels.

You’ll find it will take decades to build enough renewable capacity to replace fossil fuel based electricity generation.

And that’s before you realize that only about 25% of fossil fuel combustion goes to electricity generation. As we start switching cars, homes, industries to electric we’re going to need 2x-3x more electricity generation.

Yes it takes a long time to bring on a new nuclear plant, roughly 7-9 years. If it was remotely realistic that we could build enough renewable power generation in that time to replace all fossil fuel generation then I’d agree we don’t need nuclear. But we’re not anywhere close to that.

It’s also helpful to note too just how much power a nuclear reactor generates. I live in Canada, our second smallest nuclear power plant in Pickering, generates almost 5 times more electricity annually than all of Canada’s solar farms combined. It will take 1000s or solar and wind farms covering and area larger than all of our major cities combined to replace fossil fuels…

…or about 7 nuclear power stations the same size as Pickering.

ammonium,

Then look at the total TWh from renewables, and rate it has been growing Y-o-Y and extrapolate until it reaches the number needed to eliminate fossil fuels.

You’ll find it will take decades to build enough renewable capacity to replace fossil fuel based electricity generation.

I get ~2 decades when I extrapolate these numbers (from 2010-2023) to get to 2022 total primary energy usage for solar alone.

Energy usage will grow as well, and keeping that growth is ambitious, but it the future doesn’t look that bleak too me if you look at it that way.

CanadaPlus,

Did you use linear extrapolation, or something else? Because it’s an actual paradigm shift happening now, I’d guess some kind of exponential or subexponential curve would be best. That would bring it even faster.

Extrapolation is tricky, and actually kind of weak, although I think it’s appropriate here. This XKCD explains it really well, and I end up linking it all the damn time.

ammonium,

Exponential, it fits the curve very nicely. I can give you the python code if you want to. I got 2 decades for all energy usage, not only electricity, which is only one sixth of that.

I just took the numbers for the whole world, that’s easier to find and in the end the only thing that matters.

The next few years are going to be interesting in my opinion. If we can make efuels cheaper than fossil fuels (look up Prometheus Fuels and Terraform Industries), we’re going to jump even harder on solar and if production can keep up it will even grow faster.

CanadaPlus, (edited )

Yes, code please! This sounds amazing.

E-fuels are a big deal, particularly for aviation. Non-electricity emissions are also something to watch. Hydrogen as a reducing agent seems like it can work very well as long as we do phase out fossil fuels like promised, so that solves steel production and similar. Calcination CO2 from concrete kilns is a very sticky wicket apparently, since they’re extremely hot, heavy, and also need to rotate, which is challenging to combine with a good seal.

Cheap grid storage is a trillion-dollar question, but I suspect even if new technology doesn’t materialise, pumped air with some losses can do the trick, again subject to proper phase-out of dirty power sources.

ammonium,

Here you go, you’ll need numpy, scipy and matplotlib:


<span style="color:#323232;">from scipy.optimize import curve_fit
</span><span style="color:#323232;">from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
</span><span style="color:#323232;">
</span><span style="color:#323232;"># 2010-2013 data from https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy [TWh]
</span><span style="color:#323232;">y = np.array([32, 63, 97, 132, 198, 256, 328, 445, 575, 659, 853, 1055, 1323, 1629])
</span><span style="color:#323232;">x = np.arange(0, len(y))
</span><span style="color:#323232;">
</span><span style="color:#323232;"># function we expect the data to fit
</span><span style="color:#323232;">fit_func = lambda x, a, b, c: a * np.exp2(b * x ) + c
</span><span style="color:#323232;">popt, _ = curve_fit(fit_func, x, y, maxfev=5000)
</span><span style="color:#323232;">
</span><span style="color:#323232;">fig, ax = plt.subplots()
</span><span style="color:#323232;">ax.scatter(x + 2010, y, label="Data", color="b", linestyle=":")
</span><span style="color:#323232;">ax.plot(x + 2010, fit_func(x, *popt), color="r", linewidth=3.0, linestyle="-", label='best fit curve: $y={0:.3f} * 2^{{{1:.3f}x}} + {2:.3f}$'.format(*popt))
</span><span style="color:#323232;">plt.legend()
</span><span style="color:#323232;">plt.show()
</span>

Here’s what I get, global solar energy generated doubles every ~3.5 (1/0.284) years.

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/5999087a-772f-4cb2-81fa-98f7684bd2a6.png

CanadaPlus,

Thank you! That does look like a great fit.

So that’s just solar, then? Long term, it does seem like the one that’s the biggest deal, but right now there’s also a lot of wind and hydro in the mix, so that’s another point in favour of the assumptions here being conservative.

ammonium,

Yes, just solar. Hydro is bigger now, but it doesn’t have the growing potential. Wind is currently also growing exponential, but I don’t see it doing that for 20 more years. And even if it does, it doesn’t really make a big difference since exponential + exponential is still exponential. If it grows as fast as solar that would mean we’re just a few years ahead of the curve.

CanadaPlus,

Sorry for the delay. I’m trying to get this the response it deserves, including gathering figures for Alberta, and some basic mathematical modeling.

CanadaPlus,

Alright, I can’t seem to find useful numbers anywhere. We went from 50% coal to nil in just a few years, though, so big changes fast are possible. If you’re in Ontario, you also have to consider your local renewables penetration was really high to start with, because of those waterfalls.

And yeah, like I said to the other person, exact growth pattern matters. It’s probably exponential-ish right now, not linear, because it’s just unambiguously cheaper to move to renewables, and so just getting ducks in order to do it is the bottleneck.

dgmib,

I respect you for doing your own research. People need to understand the scope of the problem if there’s going to be meaningful action.

The reason I’m passionate about nuclear in particular is that only about a quarter of all fossil fuel consumption is from electricity generation.

Most of the rest is burned in transportation, buildings, commercial and residential applications. We have the tech already to switch most of these things to electricity, and eliminate their direct emissions, but that’s not much of a win if we’re burning fossil fuels generate that electricity. Which is what happens today when electricity demand is increased, we can’t just turn up the output of a solar/wind farm in periods of high demand, but we can burn more natural gas.

Switching to electric everything (Car, trucks, ships, heat pumps, furnaces, etc) will increase electricity demand by 2-3x.

Even if renewables growth is held to the exponential-ish curve it’s been so far (doubtful) we still need 15+ years just to get to the point of replacing current global fossil fuel electricity production in the most optimistic case, never mind enough to handle 2-3x demand.

Massive quantities of new carbon free electricity generation is needed to “unlock” the electrification technologies we need to deploy if we going to avoid the worst of the disaster. If we wait until renewables alone get us there it’ll be too late.

The more carbon free energy we can build in the next 20-30 years, the more options we have. Even if we can reach a place of excess capacity, there are a lot of things like DAC and CCS, that we could use it for that today result in more emissions from electricity generation than they sequester.

CanadaPlus,

That’s fair. Thanks for the intelligent conversation.

grue,

I don’t mean to diminish your point about the utility of nuclear, but (a) it’s subject to the same ramping up/scaling issues as anything else*, and (b) you’d be surprised how quickly we could ramp up manufacturing of renewables if The Powers That Be actually wanted to.

(* Or worse: in particular, the absolute debacle that was Plant Vogtle 3 and 4 – delivered years late and billions overbudget, while bankrupting Westinghouse in the process – shows that we definitely did not maintain our nuclear expertise over the past several decades of building exactly fuck-all new plants.)

frezik,

4C is basically Mad Max breakdown of society. Problem is self-correcting after that.

SendMePhotos,

If there are survivors, they will be the dicks. Nature is heartless and unforgiving. It is truly survival of the fittest.

dependencyinjection,

I mean they might care when billions of people try migrating in to more northern countries.

kent_eh, (edited )

As a citizen of one of those “more Northern countries”, that is one of the things that concerns me.

dependencyinjection,

Same. England for me, but I think it’ll bother the people in power who abhor people migrating and also deny climate change or at the least taking adequate action to mitigate the effects / affects (which is it).

Edit: The interweb says its effect.

WindyRebel,

Oh, you’re hot? Return to work. Our buildings are kept cool for your convenience! 😈

That’s the next play

unreasonabro,

uh no florida has already made the next play, and it was to repeal all protections for outdoor workers against the elements

in other words the next move is literally “Fuck you, die”, apparently, so, good to know we’re past the bullshit and can get on with actually solving the problem properly.

John_McMurray,

Literally every projection made about today, 20 years ago, was false. I swear yall have zero pattern recognition.

bufalo1973,
@bufalo1973@lemmy.ml avatar

Was false… because it was optimistic seen from today.

TokenBoomer,

The projections made by the Club of Rome in 1972 in Limits to Growth are still valid. Should we wait until 2040 to see if the computer simulations were true?

joshhsoj1902,

What?

What projections are you looking at? It is a few cherry picked ones? Generally the projections going back to the 80s are in line with what’s actually happening, if anything they were optimistic.

Even if you don’t agree with projection or that we’re actually in-line with them, the correlation between carbon in the atmosphere and global temperature isn’t disputable anymore.

phoenixz,

Let’s stop climate change!

Let’s stop it at 1 degree!

Let’s stop it at 1.5 degrees

Okay, we might get to 2.5 degrees, but the economy!

This will go on until we get to around 5 degree and most parts of the world have become uninhabitable and most animals and vegetation has gone extinct and we’ve locked ourselves in perpetual wars due to water and food shortages. Sounds like a shitty B movie, but this is what I truely believe we will end up with.

TokenBoomer,

I’m hopeful economies and governments will collapse before 3 degrees and measures will be put in place. I’m not extrapolating a utopian future. Before we get to the point where the world reacts, there will be many wars, migration and fascism. But as it gets worse, I’m hopeful groups will work together and fight for a better future.

phoenixz,

Nah, what will happen is that said incompetent governments will be replaced by incompetent dictatorships that will just tell people over the barrel of a gun that things are better now.

TokenBoomer,

A nuclear winter will cool things off quite a bit.

OutlierBlue,

Sounds like a shitty B movie, but this is what I truely believe we will end up with.

And we’ll deserve every bit of it.

NikkiDimes,

If it makes you feel any better, once it gets that bad, society will eventually break down and our CO2 levels will naturally return to normal over the next several centuries while the Earth is reclaimed by nature as we go extinct.

ZhaoYadang,

yay

SkaveRat,

Finally some good news

A_Random_Idiot,

We’re close to blowing past 1.5c

I think we’ll blow past 2.5c

I think we’ll be looking back, waving longingly to the incredible hulk ending song, to 5c

Because the world doesnt exist to serve the 8 billion humans. It exists to serve a few thousand rich and business owners. . which means as long as there is profit to be had, the killing of the planet and the population will continue not only at pace, but ever accelerating

MrBusiness,

Well it looks like a bunch of have a lot of self defense-ing that needs doing

vin,

Aren’t we past 1.5c? Thought we’re just waiting to see if it’s sustained

Shelbyeileen,
@Shelbyeileen@lemmy.world avatar

I have a postmortem science degree, but hobby in studying paleontology/pre-history. It took a rise of only 10°C and excess pollution to wipe out over 83% of all life on the planet between the Permian and Triassic eras. Entire chains of life just wiped out. Carbon dating, sediment layer study, fossil records, they all show how screwed me are if we keep this up. The earth will survive, it always does, but it took 30 million years before life recovered.

Humans need to learn from the past, see the consequences of what most would think is a small change, but the ones in power don’t seem to give a shit.

Burn_The_Right,

but the ones in power don’t seem to give a shit.

Conservatives also don’t give a shit.

DarkThoughts,

The majority of people on both sides of the spectrum don't give a shit. People need to stop acting like this is just politicians, or CEOs, when it is the vast majority of the voters & potential voters. You'd see a lot more votes towards green parties & candidates if it were different. But the truth is, most people don't want to lose their comfortable lifestyle. Real climate action would affect us all, in our lives, in the prices we have to pay for products, in the products available to us, how we move around, etc etc.

grue,

But the truth is, most people don’t want to lose their comfortable lifestyle.

The real truth is, the notion that a lower-carbon lifestyle is somehow inferior to our current car-dependent bullshit is 100000% fallacious bullshit brainwashed into us by the automobile industry. Walkability is just better in every way (environmentally, economically, sociologically) and people whose lifestyle doesn’t depend on cars are, statistically, happier and healthier than people who do.

DarkThoughts,

Now try to explain that people have to give up their job that's in the neighboring city, or having to get up 1-2 hours earlier due to bad train or bus connections, or that they now cannot get groceries anymore because they live in suburbia and have to drive an hour out to some massive parking lot desert to shop in their IKEA sized grocery halls.
And that's just relating to the personal transport sector.

grue,

Why do you persist in assuming that all those shitty circumstances would continue to exist when they are exactly the things I’m saying we should be fixing? The whole idea is to have lots of nearby employers, good train and bus connections, grocery stores within walking distance (and with little to no parking), etc.

The #1 priority for reducing climate change (and fixing almost all our problems, from housing affordability to obesity) is zoning reform.

DarkThoughts,

Because no one is willing to change those things. No politician who would be willing to go this far would be voted in because of the intermediate issues this would cause for people. And doing a super slow transition would be too late at this point, especially since we're way past schedule already in regards to our emission models. It even starts with the simple fact that people are simply not willing to get rid of their cars, even if public transport was good and completely free. So you'd be left with enforcing people not to drive, which is obviously also not going to happen for the same reasons.

The #1 priority for reducing climate change (and fixing almost all our problems, from housing affordability to obesity) is zoning reform.

Only in countries like the US, who have a disproportional large portion of transport emissions. But a lot of our emissions in the West simply come from the production of our goods that we buy and give us our comfy lives.

dojan,
@dojan@lemmy.world avatar

It even starts with the simple fact that people are simply not willing to get rid of their cars, even if public transport was good and completely free. So you’d be left with enforcing people not to drive, which is obviously also not going to happen for the same reasons.

Induced demand can work in reverse. Stop expanding roads. Redesignate some lanes to public transport only. Why take the car and sit in a queue for 2 hours when a bus can get you to work in 30 minutes without any queues?

DarkThoughts,

That's a decades long process. We need proper action done within this decade.

Why take the car and sit in a queue for 2 hours when a bus can get you to work in 30 minutes without any queues?

You'd be surprised how many people would take that over a ride with other people.

dojan,
@dojan@lemmy.world avatar

That’s a decades long process. We need proper action done within this decade.

We don’t know that. If it turns out that the actual ECS value is higher than predicted we’re already fucked because whatever faction we might take today should’ve already been taken decades ago. If a global humanitarian crisis is mere decades away, no changes we’ll feasibly make today or in the near future will stave it off.

You’d be surprised how many people would take that over a ride with other people.

An alternative is also that those who can, do their job remotely. Covid proved the feasibility of that. You couldn’t pay me enough to start commuting or doing my own grocery runs again. I only go outside for enjoyment and none of it involves vehicles. Unless said vehicle is a bicycle, because my dog really enjoys cycling.

DarkThoughts,

We don't know that.

We do, because the opposite effect took that long. It's likely even worse for the reasons mentioned.

we're already fucked because whatever faction we might take today should've already been taken decades ago.

That's true either way with where we're at. That's why we call for drastic actions to be taken, especially since governments can't even agree to implement what's asked for by scientific advisors, who are already very conservative in their predictions in order to not push those politicians too extremely.

If a global humanitarian crisis is mere decades away, no changes we'll feasibly make today or in the near future will stave it off.

That's not correct, because it can always get even worse. The more and sooner we get rid of our emissions, the better are our chances. That's also why, on a fixed time scale, it is important to do the bulk of the work as early as possible, instead of doing it towards the end. The longer those greenhouse gasses are in the air, the more damage it will cause for us in the long run. But right now literally all of our measurements taken are still causing us to shoot far beyond our set targets (which turns out, were already too conservatively set too).

dojan,
@dojan@lemmy.world avatar

That’s true either way with where we’re at. That’s why we call for drastic actions to be taken

So what exactly is the end goal for these drastic actions?

DarkThoughts,

To purge our emissions...

postmateDumbass,

I think they give a shit.

Enjoyment counts as giving a shit.

AfroMustache,

If you don’t mind me asking what does postmortem mean in this context? I have this funny image in my head of a skeleton studying for a degree lmao

Shelbyeileen,
@Shelbyeileen@lemmy.world avatar

Mortuary science, pathology, autopsies, etc. I was going for a masters in Anatomic Pathology before I became disabled. I just research all things dead. I was always the weird little girl that liked studying mummies and fossils, so it seemed the logical step when I was choosing a career

AfroMustache,

Thank you for the explanation!

CanadaPlus,

Worse. Normal people don’t give a shit. Even the ones that are on the team that buys into it don’t want to give up much to fix it.

grue,

That’s part of the issue, but the even bigger problem is that people fallaciously think they have to give up much to fix it when the reality is a combination of (a) they don’t, and (b) the changes that they do have to make actually represent an improvement in lifestyle, not a deprivation.

For example, Americans who’ve been brainwashed for decades by GM propaganda about the “open road” and car-dependent suburban “American dream” and whatnot have to be dragged kicking and screaming into higher zoning density and walkabilty, but once people have it they realize they’re happier, healthier, have more free time, etc.

CanadaPlus,

Well, no. Burning fossil fuels was indeed cheaper than any other energy source, until recently, and for some things still is by far the cheapest. So yeah, we have to sacrifice something today to not cook the Earth. Apparently that’s too abstract for us, though, and we will knowingly steer towards a cliff a few decades away.

As an example, in Canada we have a modest carbon tax, and one that comes right back to people as refunds. It’s still become a political lightning rod and the entire campaign target of the opposition, who is decisively leading in the polls right now. Another one, gen Z says they care, but it’s not grandma buying Shein.

grue,

Investing in better technology is categorically disqualified from counting as a “sacrifice!”

dependencyinjection,

Could you help me understand how we differentiate the latest warming temperatures being related to climate change and not just another period like the one you mentioned?

To be clear, I fully believe that climate change is real, but sometimes when discussing it with people they will be of the camp that things are cyclical and just natural. I want to better arm myself for these arguments.

Shelbyeileen,
@Shelbyeileen@lemmy.world avatar

Mass extinction events have a cause. The Permian/Triassic one I mentioned, is generally agreed to be from unusual movement of earth’s crust, creating severe volcanic activity. The eruptions caused CO2 and pollution, meaning greenhouse gasses built up. The heat shifted water currents and the temperatures, mixed with acid rain, decimated life in the oceans.

Humans are basically the volcanoes in modern times. Yes, the earth goes through normal changes, but these temperatures are increasing at a speed that, to my knowledge, has never happened. There is a way of teaching kids about how long the earth’s had life, that visualizes it pretty well. If all of earth’s history were to fit on your arm, shoulder to fingertips, if you gently scratched your fingernail on something rough, you’d erase all of humankind. We have barely existed on earth, but are throwing it off balance like never before. (With the exception of the meteor that killed the dinosaurs, but that’s a whole other tangent)

Having taken years of pathology/physiology classes, it really feels like the earth is a body, and it’s getting a fever to try and deal with an illness… us.

Lmk if you need any sources. I can’t exactly copy my books or the ones from my old college’s libraries, but there’s plenty of studies/resources out there if you’re nerdy enough to dig 😊 (fossil pun)!

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/310d8850-85be-4878-bb98-95b3f4dc36c2.png

grue, (edited )

Mass extinction events have a cause. The Permian/Triassic one I mentioned, is generally agreed to be from unusual movement of earth’s crust, creating severe volcanic activity.

I think you’d get your point across even better with less understatement.

Let’s put it this way: by “severe volcanic activity,” what you really mean is that an area roughly the size of Europe was buried half a kilometer deep in lava!

We have barely existed on earth, but are throwing it off balance like never before. (With the exception of the meteor that killed the dinosaurs, but that’s a whole other tangent)

I think we may very well be on par with the meteor, TBH. Especially in the worst-case emission scenario.

(Speaking of the K-Pg meteor, another large igneous province, similar to but smaller than the one at the P-T boundary, was basically the “exit wound” of that meteor impact. It could very well be that the P-T extinction was caused the same way, but all evidence of the crator would have been obliterated by subduction over the past 250 MY because the antipode of Siberia back then would’ve been somewhere in the middle of the Panthalassic Ocean. Edit: I take that back; turns out there that managed to survive, so that’s neat.)

Shelbyeileen,
@Shelbyeileen@lemmy.world avatar

Thank you for adding more information. I love reading more about this stuff. It would make sense if a meteor was related to the P-T volcanic activity. It would easily have enough force to mess with the crust of the earth.

bradorsomething,

I have a fun snarky way to handle “cyclical” people. If they say it’s cyclical I’ll say “so there will be dinosaurs.” And if they ask what I mean, I say “it’s a cycle, so there will be dinosaurs again.” If they say no, I ask if the continents will come together again. It’s an argument towards absurdity to point out that the world is always changing, as is the climate, so there is not a “cycle.”

UncleGrandPa,

There are models that predict as much as 4 C

TokenBoomer,

Shhh… don’t tell anyone. At 4 degrees Antarctica becomes the refuge of humanity. There’s a reason Trump wanted to buy Greenland from Denmark.🇩🇰

rayyy,

People will be fleeing famine, uninhabitable areas, rising sea levels and wars. The areas that can support life will grow smaller, more valuable and crowded.

dependencyinjection,

Will we be assholes if when this happens we be like. WE FUCKING TOLD YOU THIS WOULD HAPPEN, but y’all more concerned with arguing over pronouns and protests (I support both).

neo,

I get your frustration. I feel it myself. Still, I fear, calling people assholes won’t be helpful and prevent folks from admitting they did wrong. At the same time, it can always get worse (hotter) and I think it would be best to win as many people over as possible, to do the right thing.

I don’t know. We’re fucked anyway, I guess.

John_McMurray,

Yes yes, suddenly we shouldn’t mock because it’s unhelpful…not see through at all.

fukurthumz420,

mocking is pointless. most conservatives don’t care if you mock them. neutralizing their threat to democracy is the answer.

fukurthumz420,

stop worrying about being polite and start attacking the root of the problem - conservatives.

dojan,
@dojan@lemmy.world avatar

I mean the ones that think that trans people shouldn’t have human rights also tend to be the ones who don’t believe in climate change so…

fukurthumz420,

so ____ all conservatives for the sake of humanity. i’ve been saying this for decades.

dojan,
@dojan@lemmy.world avatar

Given that they’re anti-humanity, it seems like a logical step.

fukurthumz420,

it is.

Aux,

Lol ook.

fukurthumz420,

hear hear! please stop fighting over the petty things and get to work on the things that matter. electing a president that will fight climate change is far more important than what happens in the middle east.

jabjoe, (edited )
@jabjoe@feddit.uk avatar

What worries me is that combined with anti immigrants sentiment. I fear beaches of dead as people are prevented from fleeing. I read a SciFi with that and it chilled me as I can see it happening.

John_McMurray,

Prevented from arriving is how anti immigration works, not leaving. Jesus. Think. If you can.

glouriousgouda,

I’ve been living in coastal Southeastern Texas for 44 years. Im 46. In 2017 my county rezoned us as a flood zone because of the Havey flooding caused all the poor planning. An entire section of the state reclassified because “interstate highway” needed to be bigger.

They’ve been building the same 50ish miles for at least 27 years. All they’ve managed to do is ruin what was naturally occurring barriers and eroded our ability to maintain habitation. Or to expect a reasonable ability to protect against a disaster.

We’re leaving 3.4 acres my grandfather bought in 1986, and gave my sister and I in 2007.

And that’s just MY story. We had 375 neighbors in my area and at least 30% have moved on since 2017.

And that’s just one coastal city, in one state, in one country, on one continent.

I don’t have a lot of fantasy about humanities future.

TokenBoomer,

Can I ask where others are moving to?

glouriousgouda,

I couldn’t possibly say…

TokenBoomer,

My picks are Michigan, Minnesota ( because of the Great Lakes) and Alaska.

PanArab,

Extreme weather will make a lot of places rethink their infrastructure and whether they should even move somewhere else.

TokenBoomer,

Bye Florida.

Everythingispenguins,

Don’t worry DeSantos is just going to outlaw hurricanes. Problem solved

The_Tired_Horizon,
@The_Tired_Horizon@lemmy.world avatar

There was a powercut this week in a large part of Mexico (I know because of family from there). They’re getting rarer now as Mexico has really tried to get its grid uptogether. The downside of countries like this having more stable grids is more people and business installing aircon systems, which just means more energy used, more emissions.

The funny thing is there are ways to passively cool areas. You can literally install shading over windows and walls that face the main sun. Last year in the UK we had a few days where it was over 35C. Nobody here has aircon. So that heat is a shock to us. But I managed to cover the outside of open windows with reflective bubble wrap insulation cut into sheets.

I also installed a small solar system on our shed to run a fridge freezer out there. The funny thing is the half inch stand-offs actively created significant shading and the inside of the shed really cooled down to where we could sit in there and chill out or do tasks without melting. When I realised this I started looking online for research on solar power and shading and found agrovoltaics. Solar panels over farm crops such as fruit in hotter regions mean less watering needed… its more spread out than usual solar farms as it has to let the sun in a bit more to the food but its something that needs to be done more.

I also read of people ignoring their energy policy for their home electric and installing grid-tie solar. They use sheds, stands in their garden, conservatory roofing etc, and usually just a few hundred watts of solar. Typically homes have a fuse rating of 30-50 amps. One 300w solar panel grid tied is not going to be anywhere near that, but will mean up to 300w of clean energy. Energy companies should just allow these systems, even provide them if its a problem or worry to them. You can buy this stuff off amazon for a few hundred quid.

jose1324,

Haha and Italy just banned agrovoltaics!

The_Tired_Horizon,
@The_Tired_Horizon@lemmy.world avatar

Perfect place for it too. All those grapes will be sour.

Moonrise2473,

Isn’t the opposite? Only agrovoltaic (panels at least 2 meters over crops) is allowed

nutsack,

it’s the same in vietnam, where it reaches 40c. many do not use ac

Aux,

What do you mean no one has an aircon in the UK? I have. Plenty of my friends have them as well.

The_Tired_Horizon,
@The_Tired_Horizon@lemmy.world avatar

I have a small unit too, but we’re the rare ones. “Nobody” means “majority” here or do I really have to be literal wth everyone on the internet???

Aux,

I have a small unit too

Haha!

The_Tired_Horizon,
@The_Tired_Horizon@lemmy.world avatar

Its how you use it. 😉

TokenBoomer,

Mexico City is having water issues.

The_Tired_Horizon,
@The_Tired_Horizon@lemmy.world avatar

I remember being there in 2013 and the rivers and streams were all dried up. They were quite worried about farming.

Killing_Spark,

Also, and it’s kinda insane to me that not more people do this: just grow any plant on the sides of your house. If you are worried about your walls build a cheap metal fence a few centimetres before that wall. It’s the cheapest insulation you can get.

Wild wine, ivy, anything that will climb and live more than a year would work.

nume,

And we’ll do nothing about it because everybody is looking at corporations and their government but not at themselves to change.

riodoro1,

You like your propaganda a lot, don’t you?

nume,

No, I just realize that corporations and governments are not motivated to do anything. I know that what I’m saying shifts the blame, but realistically it’s the only way.

riodoro1,

But people are even less motivated and we should take away their plastic bottles and cars with laws. Individuals will always choose whats more comfortable for them, thats why we’re in this shit. Capitalists just profit off of it.

nume,

Counterpoint: There are millions of vegans taking the initiative to do the right thing when corporations and government obviously will not.

riodoro1,

Millions is not billions and all those vegans still work at offices, buy electronic devices, drive cars and pollute in more ways than I can imagine. The problem with climate is that we’ve grown extremely accustomed to the comforts of our extremely unsustainable lives and we’re so far gone into environmental destruction that the steps we would all need to take to stop it are already extreme, and they are only getting extreme…er.

I’m a vegetarian myself, I never ever buy plastic bottles and Im generally conscious about my impact on the environment, but without basically detaching myself from society I can’t even put a dent in the destruction my lifestyle is bringing.

Most people aren’t even vegetarians and still buy plastic bottles, they will never stop until the society tells them to. We need to fundamentally shit (a typo, but I’ll allow it) our civilization to a completely different mode to even stop deepening our graves, but guess what. We can’t even fix the fucking housing market so we’re simply doomed. The corporations will still hoard their pointless profits and we’ll get annual new fucking iphones until the day we won’t even be able to grow our food.

nume,

If people don’t want to change, how in the world do you think they’ll let a [democrat, republican, etc] politician force them to? Do you think cocacola will save us? The answer is not fun.

TokenBoomer,

There has been a consistent effort from the fossil fuel industry to shift the blame from themselves to individuals.

How Big Oil helped push the idea of a ‘carbon footprint’

From recycling ♻️ to plastic straws, the ad campaigns put the onus on individual consumers instead of the industry. Americans overwhelmingly want to do something about climate change. But the propaganda prevents action.

nume,

THIS propaganda prevents action because you’re basically saying that we shouldn’t do anything short of a revolution

TokenBoomer,

Correct. It’s the most efficient way to institute degrowth and establish a new sustainable economy.

bufalo1973,
@bufalo1973@lemmy.ml avatar

Look for the main pollution producers and you’ll be shocked (or not).

Just a hint: not the individuals.

nume,

the main polluters are making products for the individuals you speak of. they don’t exist in a vacuum.

stellargmite,

It is their responsibility , though it should be at pain of death (of their profits), to innovate in order to supply what we demand sustainability. The problem is they are not compelled to do so by any mechanism - regulatory, or market driven. And worse than that , the biggest and most culpable perpetrators of these crimes against humanity (and all other living species present and future) have actively campaigned to misinform, divide and conquer, politicize, deflect and distract (including shifting all responsibility to the individual) since they’ve known for decades that this is coming and when they alone had the means and capital to adapt, innovate, research and develop solutions for the good of all, including themselves if they’d only planned for something other than their own pockets this financial quarter.

jonasw, (edited )

deleted_by_author

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  • TokenBoomer,

    If only climate change were a product under capitalism.

    Gumus,

    Oh but it is

    Aux,

    No, it’s a product of too many people living.

    itsgoodtobeawake,

    …like gluttons. Finished that for you!

    Etterra,

    Eh humanity had a good run.

    Gradually_Adjusting,
    @Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.ca avatar

    No, no we didn’t.

    Aux,

    Yes, you did. Time to go, bye.

    riodoro1,

    I just hope im gonna be as excited to see this „civilization„ fall as I think I am. Humanity is just fucking disappointing.

    ThePyroPython,

    You really want to live through a “Children Of Men” world? I’d rather be dead.

    riodoro1,

    Shit, do I get to choose? Than hell fucking no. But I don’t, do I?

    I hope I’ll have the balls to kill myself when all this shit collapses and our last breaths turn into wars.

    fukurthumz420,

    if you’re going to kill yourself because you have nothing left to lose, why wouldn’t you take a few assholes that deserve it with you?

    fukurthumz420,

    the problem is that we not only doom ourselves with the collapse of civilization but we doom so many innocent creatures who had nothing to do with this. the animals deserve better.

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