Can we please stop with the whole “if the Republicans make the country terrible enough, they will start losing!”
No. That’s a terrible strategy. It worked once, with the repeal of abortion protections, and even then it didn’t work super well. And the tradeoff was not worth it. Women are dying.
Voters, especially Republican voters, are so stupid and brainwashed that they will believe the GOP when the GOP tells them that it’s actually Democrats (and immigrants etc etc) who have made their lives worse.
Meanwhile, back in reality, the GOP recently lost two more special elections in places they normally wouldn't & nationwide the Democrats are still beating polling by 9+ points at the ballot box post Roe V. Wade fuckery by SCotUS. Also, the GOP's bank accounts are literally being looted by the Trumps which will devastate down-ballot politicians.
I'm assuming they are using AI or a something similar for targeting polling to get the "answers" they want,
Polling hasn't been anywhere near accurate since 2016, but the Media needs its horse race. Make sure you vote & make sure 3 other people vote & we've got this.
EDIT: the silly little fascist symp @syllogi has been blocked by everyone, so all they can do is sad little downvotes. How pathetic you are, fash.
Exactly. Who do you think is more likely to answer a phone poll? A rural landline to an older man with nothing better to do then shout “Trump” into the receiver OR an urban mobile number owned by a young non-white woman with two kids?
These polls oversample loud conservatives and undersample quieter Democrats with actual lives. Remember 2020 when Trump had lots of “enthusiasm” at his rallies? How’d that work out?
It doesn’t matter how enthusiastic your vote is, it matters if you vote. Just vote and help others to do the same. Sign up for a Biden or local Democrat’s GOTV effort. That’s actual democracy.
Dude exactly, also a bunch of us dems are just of the type who wouldn’t participate regardless even if they got a hold of us. If they want my time they have to pay.
The corrupt trump judge’s reading of the statute in focus here is such overly-obvious bullshit. Also, not even his reading I’m sure (did someone follow the paper trail that shows how the federalist society likely fed him his “thoughts” on this to pave the path to the conflict of interest laden Supreme Court?
This is serious, but none of it is sincere. 250 years to fully confront the fact that the US founding principles of government are built on “gentlemen’s agreements” and an assumption of minimum level of real/performative integrity (and a fear of tarnished legacy after death) - our way of government is helpless if those core assumptions aren’t in place. Now we’re just left here to watch an obvious slow moving train intentionally crushing line after line of school children and ultimately headed towards a cliff.
Plenty of warning time, but nobody can move the children or stop the train.
I have believed this for a long time. They could make the world better for everyone but focus on making sure that others suffer just a little bit more than they do.
There is a study about this (link); many people would rather have less as long as their peers are worse off. This is our inner caveman brain telling us this is a zero sum world.
Used to love that band, their concept album about the early years of superhero Spawn was dope. Can't stand to listen to them now knowing that terrorist was a major part of it.
…respondents said that Trump would do a better job by double-digit margins.
…in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 40 percent of voters said that Trump’s policies had helped them personally, while just 18 percent said the same of Biden.
So these polls are just showing that Trump gets all the Republicans because they don’t actually care about policy, and Biden only gets a few Democrats because these questions are actually about issues, and his entire platform is that he isn’t Trump
All my life, I voted for the greater good of the greater whole, at my own expense. I am not a Biden fan and many who voted lockstep for the neolibs are most certainly voting on the issues.
It would suck if he got off (and many others by association) but is this the only charge levied against him? They should’ve got him on trespassing, inciting a riot, and possibly vandalism. I would hope those things combined would be at least a 5 year sentence.
I think you misread that line. They meant if Trump was less of a personally crazy person, but made the same accomplishments, he would be on the way to win by a landslide when you also consider bidens popularity.
That being said hope your right. Polls don’t look great and I’d rather have them saying that trump is looking very bad.
I don’t think dumps would be on track to win by a landslide or even a margin taking into account all contemporary factors, including biden’s ostensible poll popularity.
I understand the line, it does not reflect reality.
He lost by an extremely thin margin in 2020 and that was on the back of COVID and before people had a chance to experience four years of Biden. I have no idea how you’re this confident. Does this look promising to you?
And before you all jump down my throat thinking I want Trump to win: I hate that fucker and hope he dies before the election.
“On track to win a historical landslide”? Not at all. Zero evidence for that.
The article doesn’t claim that. It claims that a generic Republican would be on track to win a historical landslide. But not Trump because of his unfavorability.
What? Did you read it? It shows generic R polling vs. Biden winning big but Trump v. Biden polling low. That indicates that the majority of Americans would be open to a Republican Presidency, just not a Trump presidency. They make the case with polling data.
Wow, hyperbolic polling “data” that is consistently inaccurate and being constantly manipulated and interfered with hypothesizing a fictional republican representative with zero adverse character traits?
Did you read that article? Their first example of a polling “miss”:
The average poll in the week before election day had Mehmet Oz beating John Fetterman by nearly 1% in Pennsylvania when in reality Fetterman beat Oz by nearly 5%
Pollsters were actually calling that race a toss up (also 538’s page ). There were several polls that predicted a slim Oz and several that predicted a slim Fetterman. Even the Republican leading pollster that was predicting a 1% the wrong way has a confidence interval of +/- 2.5 and had 4.9% other/undecided factor in the poll.
People are angry that they can’t read polls. They’re angry that a toss up is just that.
Did you read it? It goes on to describe larger polling errors(14%) that resulted consistently in multiple elections going the opposite way of the polls.
Polls are consistently inaccurate.
You can read the whole article instead of the first sentence.
The Siena poll found that “independents, especially women, are swinging to the G.O.P. despite Democrats’ focus on abortion rights. …The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points–a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights.”
This is the chunk you’re complaining about? They didn’t even refute the poll they just don’t like that data. And that’s after consistently complaining about polls that were marked as toss-ups.
Like please respond to the first one. Because the polls got Oz vs. Fetterman largely correct and it’s the first example of a miss which should be the strongest one.
If a pill has a ± of 5-7 percent with 90% confidence. And you have ten polls, You would expect at least one to be off by more that 5-7%. What your describing is expected.
If I tell you that a rocket is going to land withing a 20ft circle 90% of the time and land 9 rockets in the circle and 1 out of it; was I accurate or inaccurate in your mind?
At least 10 percent of the time the rocket will consistently land inaccurately.
Further, if we more accurately pair your analogy with political polls determining an accurate election result, the rocket will consistently land inaccurately the other 90% of the time as well.
So you’re complaint is that people are telling you, “You have this percentage chance of this being reality” and then you’re mad that they’re unable to be more accurate? It’s polling it’s not fortune-telling.
Many Americans are too idiotic to realize the president is not the legislature. They can champion laws/policies, but the Executive is not the Legislative. It feels so weird to me that so much focus goes to the presidential slot when senators and house reps are the primary power brokers. It’s equally weird how we’ve allowed so much power creep to seep into the presidential office, where presidents have routinely exercised powers that are way out of their constitutional lane on numerous occasions. It sometimes feels like Americans want a totalitarian form of government.
Worse, when they blame the economy, they are ignorant to the fact that Republicans passed a law to specifically make the US Central Bank (the Federal Reserve) a PRIVATE entity that is outside the reach of the president.
Can someone explain to me what would stop dems from infinitely fillibustering any of the Republicans bullshit laws if they got control, similar to how the Republicans have?
Nothing, though the budget reconciliation process allows for one filibuster-proof bill a year if it primarily deals with the budget.
That said, the filibuster is just an internal Senate rule. A majority could simply eliminate it at any time, but that of course may come back to bite them when the balance of power shifts.
Let me add a side dish of - I’m increasingly convinced they want a system designed such that we can all work to increase the wealth of the 1% right up to the moment we drop dead in our cubicles.
No need to be unconvinced, right wingers have explicitly said that’s what they want. Benny Shaps recently said something to the effect of “It’s unhealthy to retire, everyone that retires ends up dying in a few years. We should all work as long as possible.”
Perhaps it’s that social security doesn’t let folks do much beyond existing. If they had money to travel and adventure and indulge in hobbies, maybe folks would live longer. Ben just convinced me that we need to pay people way more both while they work and in retirement.
It’s also because personal fulfillment and social connections (and a lot of physical activity) in western society are built entirely around work. You make friends at work, you talk to people at work, you walk around and move at work. Work is meant to sort of be your mental stimulation. So many people simply forget/don’t have the resources to develop connections outside of work, and then when they retire even with money they find themselves lost and aimless. Some find new ways to self-fufill, but others don’t. Without some external motivation forcing them to develop, they wither, because the system has not taught them otherwise.
Eh. Work gives me none of that. Been remote since COVID. I do get mental stimulation but honestly I get plenty of that from social media and video games - keeps my mind active and focused. If I ever do get to retire I’ll probably add woodworking to my hobbies. Most likely I’ll either die working or get some horrible disease and die because I couldn’t work and lost insurance.
But I’ll tell you, I’m fifty. Been in my career for twenty five years. I still enjoy what I do but I’m getting fucking tired of the way software development is managed. People and corporations suck all the enjoyment out of otherwise fulfilling careers. I’m not looking to retire but if I hit the lottery tomorrow (which I won’t because I don’t gamble) I wouldn’t look back. Maybe I’d go fishing with my dad more. Once he retires.
But I’ll tell you, I’m fifty. Been in my career for twenty five years. I still enjoy what I do but I’m getting fucking tired of the way software development is managed. People and corporations suck all the enjoyment out of otherwise fulfilling careers. I’m not looking to retire but if I hit the lottery tomorrow (which I won’t because I don’t gamble) I wouldn’t look back. Maybe I’d go fishing with my dad more. Once he retires.
We’re not so very different you and I. Take a couple words out and mad-lib them and I could have written this.
Fist-bump fellow disgruntled Gen-X’er. May we both win Fuck You money.
Good point. If social security won’t allow for us to live with at least at a reasonable quality of life, then it’s as if life just gets worse from there.
My dad is on disability and social security. He doesn’t really treat himself or go on vacations anymore! Instead it’s a balance between the mortgage and every day expenses.
I am an older millennial and have come to realize most adults don’t have hobbies. They either give up on it all or try to make their kids a hobby, which is a whole different level of self destruction.
I was chatting with the self imposed suburban adult “friends” and told them how I recently started learning the guitar. None of them understood. “Why would you do that? You won’t be in a band.” I am not trying to be goddamn Kirk Hammet or try out for Dreamtheater, I just want to be able to play some rifts for myself and noodle around.
People get their weird idea that a hobby must also be a means to an end rather than just something creative to pass time.
The policies they vote for again and again are definitely designed for the wealthy to only get wealthier. However what they are being sold, is a world they no longer understand, being turned against them and their children. This is the lie they’re swallowing when they vote red.
They don’t think they’re voting to enrich the elites, they believe they’re saving the future for unborn children. If you listen to the rhetoric it’s very apparent. To me it’s sad as these folks think they’re doing the right thing for their children and by proxy the world.
I was basically going to say the same thing, they’ll vote anyway, party over policy. It doesn’t matter what they propose. As long as Democrats disagree with it, their constituents will vote for it, standard team-driven advertising.
Most voters don’t care about politics at all, we just want what everyone else wants - a chance at opportunity, some form of health care and social security, you know, the good life. We can all pretty much agree on that and it’s really not that interesting a topic. So, politicians turn politics into a sports game because that’s what people care about and engage with, sports and competition, our old friend, Ego.
Most voters don’t care about politics at all, we just want what everyone else wants - a chance at opportunity, some form of health care and social security, you know, the good life.
I don’t understand retirement. Didn’t John Oliver just tell us that Millenials already don’t get to retire at 65? I am fucking livid, i am 35, my mom died at 62, I probably won’t even make it to 65 and all the money I have given to the government for this is going to be lost.
You know John Oliver is not actually the government minister in charge of When People Get to Retire?
Retirement is just a number. Once you hit that number, you can retire.
Talking about the “retirement age” is just the age at which social security benefits kick in. It doesn’t mean you’re no longer allowed to work after that age, or that you’re required to work until that age.
It’s not as simple as people pretend. But not all that complicated, either. 65 was the “full” retirement age before law changes in the 80s. For most workers today, it’s 67. But wait! The amount you will get per month from social security depends on 2 things – how much you paid into the system, and what age you actually are when you retire. You can start collecting at 62, but it will be considerably less per month than if you retire at the full retirement age. And to confuse things more, you can keep working until 70(?) and the amount you will get continues to increase every month, so I’m not sure why full retirement age is 67 instead of 70.
He was offered a $1*million/year for life if he retired. It’s not about the money, it’s about the corruption he is able to provide to his rich “friends”…
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