The House GOP just gave Biden’s campaign a huge gift: Roughly 80 percent of House Republicans just lined up behind a plan to cut Social Security and ban all abortions

Donald Trump would be on track to win a historic landslide in November — if so many US voters didn’t find him personally repugnant.

Roughly 53 percent of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of the former president. And yet, when asked about Trump’s ability to handle key issues — or the impact of his policies — voters routinely give the Republican candidate higher marks than President Biden.

In a YouGov survey released this month, Trump boasted an advantage over Biden on 10 of the 15 issues polled. On the three issues that voters routinely name as top priorities — the economy, immigration, and inflation — respondents said that Trump would do a better job by double-digit margins.

Meanwhile, in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 40 percent of voters said that Trump’s policies had helped them personally, while just 18 percent said the same of Biden. If Americans could elect a normal human being with Trump’s reputation for being “tough” on immigration and good at economics, they would almost certainly do so.

Biden is fortunate that voters do not have that option. But to erase Trump’s small but stubborn lead in the polls, the president needs to erode his GOP rival’s advantage on the issues.

Fapper_McFapper,

The message is clear. Republicans want to raise the retirement age to 69, outlaw abortion on a national level. Vote Republican at your own peril.

Plopp,

Vote Republican at your own peril.

Peril is less bad than those communist democrats, I bet all too many morons believe.

hemmes,
@hemmes@lemmy.world avatar

I was basically going to say the same thing, they’ll vote anyway, party over policy. It doesn’t matter what they propose. As long as Democrats disagree with it, their constituents will vote for it, standard team-driven advertising.

Most voters don’t care about politics at all, we just want what everyone else wants - a chance at opportunity, some form of health care and social security, you know, the good life. We can all pretty much agree on that and it’s really not that interesting a topic. So, politicians turn politics into a sports game because that’s what people care about and engage with, sports and competition, our old friend, Ego.

Follow your heart, not your ego.

Cryophilia,

Most voters don’t care about politics at all, we just want what everyone else wants - a chance at opportunity, some form of health care and social security, you know, the good life.

That is politics.

photonic_sorcerer,

Not really, just basic human rights.

Cryophilia,

Also politics.

Plopp,

Everything is politics. But people tend to not like to think of things as politics. Because “politics is boring”.

capital_sniff,

Politics explained simply is about who gets what and when they get it.

Daft_ish,

Triple funny when you consider all the communists fucking hate biden.

astrsk,
@astrsk@piefed.social avatar

Wow they even managed to make the funny number not funny anymore.

vanontom,
@vanontom@lemmy.world avatar

Obligatory: Nice.

Chocrates,

I don’t understand retirement. Didn’t John Oliver just tell us that Millenials already don’t get to retire at 65? I am fucking livid, i am 35, my mom died at 62, I probably won’t even make it to 65 and all the money I have given to the government for this is going to be lost.

Cryophilia,

You know John Oliver is not actually the government minister in charge of When People Get to Retire?

Retirement is just a number. Once you hit that number, you can retire.

Talking about the “retirement age” is just the age at which social security benefits kick in. It doesn’t mean you’re no longer allowed to work after that age, or that you’re required to work until that age.

douglasg14b,
@douglasg14b@lemmy.world avatar

Morals to talking about penalties for your retirement accounts…

Which can be significant

aodhsishaj,

Government minister? там, где ты, товарищ, водка хороша?

MotoAsh,

No one thinks retirement is when the government forces you to not work… What are you, 14?

Cryophilia,

You might overestimate Chocrates

You definitely overestimate Lemmy commenters

Chocrates,

I am an idiot but this seems pointlessly mean.

Cryophilia,

Just an accurate observation from my time on lemmy.

ClanOfTheOcho,

It’s not as simple as people pretend. But not all that complicated, either. 65 was the “full” retirement age before law changes in the 80s. For most workers today, it’s 67. But wait! The amount you will get per month from social security depends on 2 things – how much you paid into the system, and what age you actually are when you retire. You can start collecting at 62, but it will be considerably less per month than if you retire at the full retirement age. And to confuse things more, you can keep working until 70(?) and the amount you will get continues to increase every month, so I’m not sure why full retirement age is 67 instead of 70.

Zuberi,
@Zuberi@lemmy.dbzer0.com avatar

Socialism 2024

Fuck blue maga and their genocide

Mastengwe,

Everyone’s peril.

capital,

Vote Republican or stay home at your own peril.

octopus_ink, (edited )

The party of taking things away strikes again!

Let me add a side dish of - I’m increasingly convinced they want a system designed such that we can all work to increase the wealth of the 1% right up to the moment we drop dead in our cubicles.

cogman,

No need to be unconvinced, right wingers have explicitly said that’s what they want. Benny Shaps recently said something to the effect of “It’s unhealthy to retire, everyone that retires ends up dying in a few years. We should all work as long as possible.”

MagicShel,

Perhaps it’s that social security doesn’t let folks do much beyond existing. If they had money to travel and adventure and indulge in hobbies, maybe folks would live longer. Ben just convinced me that we need to pay people way more both while they work and in retirement.

empireOfLove2,
@empireOfLove2@lemmy.dbzer0.com avatar

It’s also because personal fulfillment and social connections (and a lot of physical activity) in western society are built entirely around work. You make friends at work, you talk to people at work, you walk around and move at work. Work is meant to sort of be your mental stimulation. So many people simply forget/don’t have the resources to develop connections outside of work, and then when they retire even with money they find themselves lost and aimless. Some find new ways to self-fufill, but others don’t. Without some external motivation forcing them to develop, they wither, because the system has not taught them otherwise.

MagicShel,

Eh. Work gives me none of that. Been remote since COVID. I do get mental stimulation but honestly I get plenty of that from social media and video games - keeps my mind active and focused. If I ever do get to retire I’ll probably add woodworking to my hobbies. Most likely I’ll either die working or get some horrible disease and die because I couldn’t work and lost insurance.

But I’ll tell you, I’m fifty. Been in my career for twenty five years. I still enjoy what I do but I’m getting fucking tired of the way software development is managed. People and corporations suck all the enjoyment out of otherwise fulfilling careers. I’m not looking to retire but if I hit the lottery tomorrow (which I won’t because I don’t gamble) I wouldn’t look back. Maybe I’d go fishing with my dad more. Once he retires.

octopus_ink,

But I’ll tell you, I’m fifty. Been in my career for twenty five years. I still enjoy what I do but I’m getting fucking tired of the way software development is managed. People and corporations suck all the enjoyment out of otherwise fulfilling careers. I’m not looking to retire but if I hit the lottery tomorrow (which I won’t because I don’t gamble) I wouldn’t look back. Maybe I’d go fishing with my dad more. Once he retires.

We’re not so very different you and I. Take a couple words out and mad-lib them and I could have written this.

Fist-bump fellow disgruntled Gen-X’er. May we both win Fuck You money.

photonic_sorcerer,

In western society? Bro, in Japan and S. Korea, they’ve never heard of a work-life balance. This isn’t a western thing, this is a class issue.

Resonosity,

Good point. If social security won’t allow for us to live with at least at a reasonable quality of life, then it’s as if life just gets worse from there.

My dad is on disability and social security. He doesn’t really treat himself or go on vacations anymore! Instead it’s a balance between the mortgage and every day expenses.

Starkstruck,

These people seem to not understand the concept of hobbies. You can still “work”, just on things that are actually fulfilling and make you happy.

Ragnarok314159,

I am an older millennial and have come to realize most adults don’t have hobbies. They either give up on it all or try to make their kids a hobby, which is a whole different level of self destruction.

I was chatting with the self imposed suburban adult “friends” and told them how I recently started learning the guitar. None of them understood. “Why would you do that? You won’t be in a band.” I am not trying to be goddamn Kirk Hammet or try out for Dreamtheater, I just want to be able to play some rifts for myself and noodle around.

People get their weird idea that a hobby must also be a means to an end rather than just something creative to pass time.

paddirn,

They want a return to the good old days… of feudalism, when wealth and power was concentrated with the upper classes and the clergy.

aodhsishaj,

The policies they vote for again and again are definitely designed for the wealthy to only get wealthier. However what they are being sold, is a world they no longer understand, being turned against them and their children. This is the lie they’re swallowing when they vote red.

archive.is/cRKFK

They don’t think they’re voting to enrich the elites, they believe they’re saving the future for unborn children. If you listen to the rhetoric it’s very apparent. To me it’s sad as these folks think they’re doing the right thing for their children and by proxy the world.

Jaysyn, (edited )
@Jaysyn@kbin.social avatar

Meanwhile, back in reality, the GOP recently lost two more special elections in places they normally wouldn't & nationwide the Democrats are still beating polling by 9+ points at the ballot box post Roe V. Wade fuckery by SCotUS. Also, the GOP's bank accounts are literally being looted by the Trumps which will devastate down-ballot politicians.

I'm assuming they are using AI or a something similar for targeting polling to get the "answers" they want,

Polling hasn't been anywhere near accurate since 2016, but the Media needs its horse race. Make sure you vote & make sure 3 other people vote & we've got this.

EDIT: the silly little fascist symp @syllogi has been blocked by everyone, so all they can do is sad little downvotes. How pathetic you are, fash.

Tolookah,

We need more than 4 votes though… (Joke if not obvious)

KevonLooney,

Exactly. Who do you think is more likely to answer a phone poll? A rural landline to an older man with nothing better to do then shout “Trump” into the receiver OR an urban mobile number owned by a young non-white woman with two kids?

These polls oversample loud conservatives and undersample quieter Democrats with actual lives. Remember 2020 when Trump had lots of “enthusiasm” at his rallies? How’d that work out?

It doesn’t matter how enthusiastic your vote is, it matters if you vote. Just vote and help others to do the same. Sign up for a Biden or local Democrat’s GOTV effort. That’s actual democracy.

Riven,
@Riven@lemmy.dbzer0.com avatar

Dude exactly, also a bunch of us dems are just of the type who wouldn’t participate regardless even if they got a hold of us. If they want my time they have to pay.

vaultdweller013,

Cant remember who said it but “polls are fake until voting” comes to mind.

chakan2,
@chakan2@lemmy.world avatar

Those people answering the landline are MUCH more likely to vote. Ask Hilary and Bernie how their races went.

Trump is up…the D’s need to realize that and do something about it.

stoly,

LOL I must have blocked them a long time ago because I see nothing.

ripcord,
@ripcord@lemmy.world avatar

They haven’t commented anything in months, there’s nothing to see. They’re talking about downvotes.

JDPoZ,
@JDPoZ@lemmy.world avatar

deleted_by_author

    •
    shinratdr,
    @shinratdr@lemmy.ca avatar

    Obama floated a single-payer option for healthcare, he was stopped by Republicans. People also need to realize that the Democrats scraping by means they have to compromise to survive.

    You want them to do more? They need a mandate, not a razor thin slice. The Republicans have gerrymandered the fuck out of your country and made it so that even when they aren’t elected, they can control or block everything. They’ve made it impossible for Democrats to get a landslide, blocked absolutely everything they can, stirred up as much voter apathy as possible, so that even when they lose, they win. And you’re buying right into it.

    This is also why everyone should vote Democrat. You only have two parties in your country. If the Democrats always win because the Republicans are too right wing, they will forced to abandon their most repugnant social policies to save the golden goose, tax cuts and cutting social programs.

    This will force Democrats to move left to differentiate themselves, and so forth. Short of electoral reform which will never happen, it has to become political suicide to be against abortion, LGBTQ issues, etc like it is in other countries.

    chakan2,
    @chakan2@lemmy.world avatar

    Obama floated a single-payer option for healthcare, he was stopped by Republicans.

    You might want to check that one out again. The Ds had a majority in Congress and managed to fuck themselves on that one.

    Single payer will never pass, big insurance owns too many congress people on both sides of the isle. A couple million dollar payoff for a dissenting vote is much cheaper than the billions they’d lose if either ACA is repealed, or we cut them out of the game with something like universal healthcare.

    Ragnarok314159,

    The self titled “Blue-Dog democrats” ruined the ACA into the insurance company payday. Was guys like Manchin.

    root_beer, (edited )

    Never forget that bastard Lieberman

    [edit] speak of the devil, he’s gone home now

    Albatross2724,

    Lieberman, Manchin, Sinema. There’s always going to be a rotating villain. Our political landscape is designed to invest the least amount of political capital for the preservation of the status quo. Our Congress is beholden to the interests of the ruling class and that money flows to both sides of the aisle.

    shinratdr,
    @shinratdr@lemmy.ca avatar

    Stopped by republicans and republicans cosplaying as Democrats. Is that better?

    Point is, slim majority at best. Look to any parliamentary democracy to see what a real majority is.

    go_go_gadget,

    … So Democrats.

    reverendsteveii,

    republicans cosplaying as Democrats

    but we need to vote for the republicans cosplaying as Democrats so that they can continue to be the reason we don’t get anything instead of Republicans. The fatal flaw in the idea that people like Manchin, Sinema and other blue dogs are another obstacle the Dems need to overcome is that Dems. Chose. Them. Those people are in congress getting in the way of the democratic agenda because democrats put them there.

    BrianTheeBiscuiteer,

    Presidents can’t just make laws without going through Congress, despite what pretty much every news media organization likes to imply. For two years Biden had an obstructionist Senate and now it’s the obstructionist House.

    To your point though, I think Democrats could do a better job promoting all the changes they would make. Say you’ll “enshrine the right to an abortion” into law, say you’ll establish a minimum wage that keeps up with inflation, say you’ll let doctors heal and teachers teach, say you’ll take the title away from China as the leader in renewable energy, and for fuck sake say you’ll stop kowtowing to the Israeli government.

    OlPatchy2Eyes,

    Did you watch the State of the Union?

    Bernie_Sandals,
    @Bernie_Sandals@lemmy.world avatar

    Your point being? Strong presidential talk at the State of the Union does not give them the power to pass laws without congress.

    OlPatchy2Eyes,

    I was responding to the second paragraph where they said that Democrats need to message better. I believe a lot of the topics they gave as examples that the Democrats could push in their messaging was in the State of the Union.

    Bernie_Sandals,
    @Bernie_Sandals@lemmy.world avatar

    Oh, alright, my bad, the State of the Union was definitely some of the best messaging I’ve seen of a united democratic party I’ve seen in a while.

    Cryophilia,

    Can we please stop with the whole “if the Republicans make the country terrible enough, they will start losing!”

    No. That’s a terrible strategy. It worked once, with the repeal of abortion protections, and even then it didn’t work super well. And the tradeoff was not worth it. Women are dying.

    Voters, especially Republican voters, are so stupid and brainwashed that they will believe the GOP when the GOP tells them that it’s actually Democrats (and immigrants etc etc) who have made their lives worse.

    oatscoop,

    Accelerationists come in two flavors: bad actors and morons.

    fubarx,

    “Donald Trump would be on track to win a historic landslide in November — if so many US voters didn’t find him personally repugnant.”

    That if is doing a lot of heavy lifting.

    buddascrayon,

    What blows my mind is how many people these poles seem to say think that Donald Trump’s economic policies are so great. The fact is that he, in four short years, undid nearly all of the economic growth that Obama built on for eight full years. And that was before he mishandled the pandemic so unfathomably badly that our country is still recovering from it four years later.

    It is just mind boggling that there are people, that aren’t a part of his moronic base, who see him as anything but a buffoon.

    Edit: formatting and clarification.

    Jimmyeatsausage,

    The people still supporting Trump, by and large, live in an entirely different reality than the rest of us. Even among Republicans, the belief that Biden actually won the last election or that Trump has done anything wrong is strongly correlated with Fox News viewership.

    tegs_terry,

    Brainwashed from birth

    OlPatchy2Eyes,

    The economy is a really easy target for someone to point to to claim a president is doing well or poorly. Really whenever someone makes a claim about “the economy” in general without specifying which metrics they’re talking about and why those are relevant, they’re full of it and just using it to make the list of pros or cons longer.

    I’m still in my 20s and I’m more or less a layman as far as economics go. Ever since I started paying attention to politics, the economy has simultaneously been doing extremely well and poorly depending on who you ask, and they can use a whole mess of different metrics to explain why they’re right. Meanwhile the only thing I really notice is the price of gas, groceries, or rent.

    It seems that we live in two different economies: a good one for people that support the president, and a bad one for those that don’t.

    WhatAmLemmy,

    I think it’s a whole lot simpler than that.

    Trumps presidency was 80% pre-covid, and entirely pre-inflation. Bidens was all covid, all inflation that saw the average person lose 20-30% of their pay.

    This is how stupid and simplistic the average voter is, and it’s why conservative propaganda works so well. Their feelings don’t care about facts.

    laurelraven,

    And have pretty much always been that way, at least in semi recent memory, and the GOP have used this fact constantly by taking credit for their Dem predecessors’ economic policies and by the time the negative impact of their policies start to be seen, the Dems are back in power and the GOP blames them for the hardship

    The average voter does not and apparently will never understand that economic policy takes years to fully see and feel the impact

    Got_Bent,

    I’ve been working for three decades. In that time, we’ve had some legitimate financial crises such as 9/11, 2008, and COVID.

    Those aside, what I’ve mainly witnessed is people who fail in business or lose their job via incompetence never say, “Man, I should’ve hired a legitimate bookkeeper and stopped using my corporate card to cut rails in the strip club bathroom,” or, “Man, maybe I should’ve shown up to work more than twice a month and maybe I shouldn’t have slapped the receptionist on the ass when I did show up.”

    No. It’s always, “My business failed and I lost my job because of the economy”

    “The economy” is some great catch all bogeyman scapegoat that has very little basis in meaning when used in daily conversation, especially as it pertains to personal finance.

    We can talk about corporatocracies or consolidation of wealth or two tier justice because those things are real and should be addressed, but they are rarely what people are referring to when they blame “the economy.”

    HessiaNerd,

    Trump being good for inflation by… starting a trade war with China? And Europe?

    MediaSensationalism,
    @MediaSensationalism@covert.nexus avatar

    40 percent of voters said that Trump’s policies had helped them personally, while just 18 percent said the same of Biden.

    One significant change I’ve noticed from Biden’s policies in my daily life is the capping of overdraft fees. Previously, having a negative balance was a financial emergency as I had to borrow money from friends to avoid hefty $30 fees while waiting for my income check to clear.

    mwguy,

    Trumps tax policies benefits the majority of Americans who take a standard deduction. He made sure his name was on the COVID checks and the Child Tax credit checks. He was the President that stopped student loan payments.

    None of these are historically GOP policies but they did help the average person. Trump is pretty good at making sure people know that he’s helping them in some way.

    FreddyDunningKruger,

    Trump didn’t STOP student loan payments, Trump PAUSED student loan payments. Biden was the President that actually stopped payments by providing real debt relief, while Republicans attempt to block it with all their heart and soul.

    laurelraven,

    And sadly, a lot of voters don’t understand that, just “I got relief from Trump and got it taken away by Biden” and no amount of explaining will get them to see what really happened

    mwguy,

    Stop vs. Pause is a distinction without substance when 30% of the population is illiterate, and over 50% can’t read or write at a 6th grade level or above.

    Like I get it, I get what you’re saying and it’s technically correct. But to the rube who’s going to be voting (or at least 30% who will), they just know that under Trump their student loans stopped; and then Biden restarted them.

    aodhsishaj,

    If they’re illiterate, i doubt they have student loan payments

    mwguy,

    You’d be surprised. No Child Left Behind caused a lot of schools to “auto-pass” failing students to get them off of their rolls. And if you pass high school you can almost always get into a lower-tier public school or a community college. Also, you have to combine that with straight-up Scam colleges that accept anybody.

    MediaSensationalism,
    @MediaSensationalism@covert.nexus avatar

    Trump’s policies jeopardized the lives, livelihoods, and overall welfare of transgender people.

    laurelraven,

    Which many people, unfortunately, consider a good things

    mwguy,

    I know that, but most people don’t care (or even worse agree with it). Trans issues are really only popular online; similar to homosexual issues in the 90s/00s.

    DrPop,

    The child tax credit checks were for 2021 which was Biden. Also him making sure just name was on the checks created delays and is just an ego things. Also when they doubled the standard deduction they took away exemptions.

    Semi_Hemi_Demigod,
    @Semi_Hemi_Demigod@lemmy.world avatar

    For example, prior to increasing the standard deduction you could deduct a portion of your rent and bills if you worked from home. I used to take advantage of this and ended up owing taxes for the first time thanks to them taking away exemptions. Luckily my alimony is from 2018 or I wouldn’t be able to deduct that anymore either.

    mwguy,

    The supermajority of Americans take the standard deduction. You have to understand math to take the other routes. So removing those exemptions was not a negative to the majority of lower and middle class Americans.

    It may have delayed the checks, but the checks stopped under Biden. And that’s what people remember.

    They were paying the credit out early during COVID, not simply including it in your taxes. To the average person it looks like more moola.

    DrPop, (edited )

    As someone who deals with this everyday for work I can tell you the tax cuts and jobs said act of 2018 did not help anybody but those that already had money. The tax returns got"simpler" but as for families they didn’t see that much of a difference or owed more.

    Passerby6497,

    Trumps tax policies benefits the majority of Americans who take a standard deduction.

    Up until the tax breaks sunset during the Biden admin as it has been I tended to do, making it worse for the majority of Americans.

    Funny enough, THAT is a historically GOP policy: give just enough to make the opposition look bad when you take it away.

    mwguy,

    You and I get that. The average person doesn’t. That’s why it’s effective.

    MedicPigBabySaver,

    Shut your pie hole. Idiot.

    mwguy,

    Cram it in your cram whole Lafleur!

    laverabe,

    It’s unusual this was down voted. I took your statement as to say Trump is better at messaging, and it’s something Biden needs to do better.

    Everyone seemed to take the tone as support for Trump, which doesn’t appear to be the intent.

    mwguy,

    What’s more; the majority of Americans don’t vote. Trump realized that if you can convince non-voters to vote you can crush in an election and that’s where the majority of his support has come from. Biden, the Democrats (and honestly the establishment Republicans) still don’t realize or are unwilling to utilize this fact.

    To win; Biden needs to help American’s pocketbooks and do so now.

    Everyone seemed to take the tone as support for Trump, which doesn’t appear to be the intent.

    Ya that’s pretty normal. Trump is the worst president in my lifetime. He should be easy to beat.

    Zoomboingding,
    @Zoomboingding@lemmy.world avatar

    The biggest campaign disaster is not touting the monumental investments in infrastructure. You almost certainly have a water line replacement, lead service line replacement, or bridge reconstruction project in your town funded by Biden.

    Suavevillain,
    @Suavevillain@lemmy.world avatar

    I don’t think GOP voters really care about policy at this point. They have voted against their own interests all the time. I’ve seen it 1st hand working at the SNAP office in my state. People voting/worshiping guys like DeSantis while he makes it harder for them to get food or help.

    cultsuperstar,

    The phrase I’ve heard in the past is a Republican would eat shit if it meant a liberal would have to smell their breath.

    These people hate Dems and liberals so much they’ll vote for the most vile people. They just don’t care as long as a Dem isn’t in power.

    Korne127,
    @Korne127@lemmy.world avatar

    But it’s not about the core voters that always vote for the same party. It’s about the people that are switching and still (somehow) unsure. And they can be reached.

    octopus_ink,

    Too long since I’ve said this:

    Fuck you, Republicans!

    MsPenguinette,

    It’s been 8 hours since you commented and it’s already too long since you’ve said this

    octopus_ink,

    It’s been 8 hours since you commented and it’s already too long since you’ve said this

    Agreed!

    Fuck you, Republicans!

    Ragnarok314159,

    Go on…say the line, Bart_octopus_ink.

    Zuberi,
    @Zuberi@lemmy.dbzer0.com avatar

    Socialism 2024

    Fuck blue maga and their genocide

    Varyk,

    Bull puckey, dumps would in no way definable be “on track to win a historic landslide”.

    He didn’t win by a landslide in 2016, he lost in 2020, and he’s in a far weaker position today than in either of those elections.

    Theprogressivist,
    @Theprogressivist@lemmy.world avatar

    They’re so desperate to create false realities.

    glovecraft,

    They gotta get those page views and ad impressions.

    Maeve,

    Friendly reminder he lost the popular vote in 16.

    Varyk,

    And 20. Woop woop.

    Habahnow,

    I think you misread that line. They meant if Trump was less of a personally crazy person, but made the same accomplishments, he would be on the way to win by a landslide when you also consider bidens popularity.

    That being said hope your right. Polls don’t look great and I’d rather have them saying that trump is looking very bad.

    Varyk,

    I don’t think dumps would be on track to win by a landslide or even a margin taking into account all contemporary factors, including biden’s ostensible poll popularity.

    I understand the line, it does not reflect reality.

    underisk,
    @underisk@lemmy.ml avatar

    He lost by an extremely thin margin in 2020 and that was on the back of COVID and before people had a chance to experience four years of Biden. I have no idea how you’re this confident. Does this look promising to you?

    And before you all jump down my throat thinking I want Trump to win: I hate that fucker and hope he dies before the election.

    Varyk, (edited )

    Has a chance? Sure.

    “On track to win a historical landslide”? Not at all. Zero evidence for that.

    That picture does not look promising or relevant.

    Don’t cast your assumptions on me to attack them; make up whatever throat-jumping stories you like, but leave me out of them.

    mwguy,

    “On track to win a historical landslide”? Not at all. Zero evidence for that.

    The article doesn’t claim that. It claims that a generic Republican would be on track to win a historical landslide. But not Trump because of his unfavorability.

    Varyk,

    I don’t know which article you read, but:

    “Donald Trump would be on track to win a historic landslide in November — if so many US voters didn’t find him personally repugnant.”

    That’s exactly the case the article is making, and that case has no legs to stand on.

    mwguy,

    What? Did you read it? It shows generic R polling vs. Biden winning big but Trump v. Biden polling low. That indicates that the majority of Americans would be open to a Republican Presidency, just not a Trump presidency. They make the case with polling data.

    Varyk,

    Wow, hyperbolic polling “data” that is consistently inaccurate and being constantly manipulated and interfered with hypothesizing a fictional republican representative with zero adverse character traits?

    Weird that people aren’t giving that more weight…

    mwguy,

    Wow, hyperbolic polling “data” that is consistently inaccurate

    Citation needed.

    Varyk,

    fortune.com/…/pollsters-got-it-wrong-2018-2020-el…

    mwguy, (edited )

    Did you read that article? Their first example of a polling “miss”:

    The average poll in the week before election day had Mehmet Oz beating John Fetterman by nearly 1% in Pennsylvania when in reality Fetterman beat Oz by nearly 5%

    Pollsters were actually calling that race a toss up (also 538’s page ). There were several polls that predicted a slim Oz and several that predicted a slim Fetterman. Even the Republican leading pollster that was predicting a 1% the wrong way has a confidence interval of +/- 2.5 and had 4.9% other/undecided factor in the poll.

    People are angry that they can’t read polls. They’re angry that a toss up is just that.

    Varyk,

    Did you read it? It goes on to describe larger polling errors(14%) that resulted consistently in multiple elections going the opposite way of the polls.

    Polls are consistently inaccurate.

    You can read the whole article instead of the first sentence.

    mwguy,

    The Siena poll found that “independents, especially women, are swinging to the G.O.P. despite Democrats’ focus on abortion rights. …The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points–a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights.”

    This is the chunk you’re complaining about? They didn’t even refute the poll they just don’t like that data. And that’s after consistently complaining about polls that were marked as toss-ups.

    Like please respond to the first one. Because the polls got Oz vs. Fetterman largely correct and it’s the first example of a miss which should be the strongest one.

    Varyk,

    No, it isn’t, and i responded to your first reply four days ago when you originally replied.

    If you are expecting every single pull to be inconsistent by the exact same amount, you’re going to be disappointed.

    Some polls are off by 1% some are off by 15% some are off by more.

    They’re not all from identical elections, and there’s not always an identical number of people voting or people being polled.

    Polls are consistently inaccurate,is the point here.

    mwguy,

    If a pill has a ± of 5-7 percent with 90% confidence. And you have ten polls, You would expect at least one to be off by more that 5-7%. What your describing is expected.

    Varyk,

    Right, polls are consistently inaccurate and should not be counted on as foundational predictors of political conclusions.

    mwguy,

    If I tell you that a rocket is going to land withing a 20ft circle 90% of the time and land 9 rockets in the circle and 1 out of it; was I accurate or inaccurate in your mind?

    Varyk,

    Consistently inaccurate.

    At least 10 percent of the time the rocket will consistently land inaccurately.

    Further, if we more accurately pair your analogy with political polls determining an accurate election result, the rocket will consistently land inaccurately the other 90% of the time as well.

    mwguy,

    So you’re complaint is that people are telling you, “You have this percentage chance of this being reality” and then you’re mad that they’re unable to be more accurate? It’s polling it’s not fortune-telling.

    Varyk,

    Where are you getting that I’m mad?

    I’m not complaining.

    People are drawing illogical conclusions from false premises.

    I’m reminding people that drawing conclusions from flawed premises leads to flawed conclusions.

    mwguy,

    My apologies I misread your tone.

    Snapz, (edited )

    He’s demonstrably the actual biggest loser in history, and he only gets more loser-y folks… If any of you are starting to have your memories fade, here’s a quick refresher to read this morning and then copy and send to your aunt karen in Missouri.

    • 0 re-elections won
    • 1 term president
    • 2 times impeached
    • 3 marriages
    • 4 inch lifts in his shoes
    • 5 kids, from 3 different mothers
    • 6 bankruptcies
    • 7 US Capitol police suing him for Jan 6 terrorist insurrection and murder of police
    • 8 trillion + dollars added to the US debt in a single term
    • 9 trump lawyers sanctioned by federal judge for lying in frivolous election fraud lawsuits and ordered to pay defendant’s legal fees
    • 10 years that trump paid $0 in income taxes between 2000 and 2015. ($0 to cops, teachers, roads, prisons, disaster relief, etc)
    • 11 trump associates charged with serious crimes over the past 5 years
    • 12 million votes (the big lie) - trump claims he won the 2020 election by 12 million votes when in reality, he lost by about 7 million votes.
    • 13 of August, 2021 - one of multiple days that trump was supposed to magically become president again according to Qanon and a crack addicted pillow salesman (the two most respected information sources in the gop)
    • 14 year old girl in a youth choir that trump approached in 1992 to say, "Wow! Just think - in a couple years I’ll be dating you."
    • 15 originally confirmed cases of COVID in the US trump said would soon be, “down to close to zero.” followed by, “like a miracle, it will disappear.” - over 1,000,000 Americans have since died of COVID as it continues to kill years later.
    • 16 years old - age of daughter ivanka when she hosted “miss teen” pageant and, according to long time trump associate Noel Casler, "trump called her over in the middle of a rehearsal and had her give him a lap dance while he leered at the crew."
    • 17 known trump and russia investigations from local, state and federal prosecutors
    • 18 gop senators that ignored trump threats / warnings and supported Biden admin’s infrastructure bill.
    • 19 as in COVID19 - trump was verified as the single largest source of disinformation on the virus, with a Cornell study claiming that 38% of the “misinformation conversation” originated with trump
    • 20 the day in January, 2021, when Biden was sworn in despite trump inciting a violent insurrection to stop election verification at the US Capitol.
    • 21 gun salute that trump ordered for himself when he left office after a humiliating defeat, even though he never served in the military, famously called military members “losers” and “suckers” and actively avoided the draft with a cowardly “bone spurs” excuse.
    • 22 date in August, 2021, when Alabama hate rally crowd booed trump for finally saying people should get vaccinated, only after 700,000 Americans had died due in large part to his failure as president
    • 23 as in wrestlemania 23 in 2007 where trump, a cartoon level failure with no other prospects, participated in a fake bet that a proxy wrestler would win a fake fight on his behalf or he would shave his wig and hair plugs off.
    • 24 day in August, 2021, when trump actually filed a lawsuit in Florida court against YouTube, a private company, demanding that they reinstate his YouTube channel like a desperate, irrelevant embarrassment with no platforms left to abuse.
    • 25 plus credible sexual assault allegations against trump, spanning decades and with accusers starting as young as 13 years old at time of assault.

    And…

    • 91 indictments.
    cultsuperstar,

    It’s a big number jump but I think you forgot 91 indictments.

    Snapz,

    Fixed it for you, worthy addition and jump

    JeeBaiChow,

    It literally doesn’t matter, unless people go out and vote. Seriously, if you don’t vote, you deserve 4 more years of that loser.

    acutfjg,

    I don’t think “not voting” should lead to what trumpers will do to this country. BUT, voting is easy enough that if they really care they better make the little effort it takes.

    laurelraven,

    Just throwing this out there: it’s not so easy for everyone, red states in particular love to add roadblocks to it including closing so many polling places that voters at the remaining places will likely face many hours of standing in line, particularly in areas more likely to vote blue, and have even passed laws making it illegal to shuttle people to the polls or pass out water to people waiting to vote.

    damnedfurry,

    I don’t live in a swing state. Voting for President is literally pointless for me.

    You can get me to the poll if the vote is for abolishing the electoral college, or if ranked choice/instant runoff becomes the method used to determine the winner.

    Not going to bother otherwise.

    laverabe,

    I dunno if you know but the US has 2 branches of govt that are democratically elected… One could argue the legislative branch is actually far more powerful than the executive.

    samus12345,
    @samus12345@lemmy.world avatar

    President is just one of many things you’re voting on. Passing on voting because of that is a very bad idea.

    damnedfurry,

    President is just one of many things you’re voting on.

    Uh, yeah, that’s why I specifically said “voting for President”.

    Plus this whole thread is specifically about the Presidential race.

    samus12345,
    @samus12345@lemmy.world avatar

    You can get me to the poll if the vote is for abolishing the electoral college or if ranked choice/instant runoff becomes the method used to determine the winner.

    Not going to bother otherwise.

    You said you won’t go to the poll, meaning you won’t vote for anything. It’s all on the same ballot.

    damnedfurry,

    Bad word choice, what I meant is that I’m not interested in voting for President unless that particular vote also came with one/both of those things ‘attached’.

    samus12345,
    @samus12345@lemmy.world avatar

    Oh, okay, if you wanna leave the president part blank and you’re not in a swing state, no harm, no foul. Or just write someone in.

    MrFunnyMoustache,

    Republican voters subconsciously want the other side to suffer more than improving their situation, they are just not self-aware enough to realise it.

    stoly,

    I have believed this for a long time. They could make the world better for everyone but focus on making sure that others suffer just a little bit more than they do.

    MrFunnyMoustache,

    There is a study about this (link); many people would rather have less as long as their peers are worse off. This is our inner caveman brain telling us this is a zero sum world.

    Bonskreeskreeskree,

    Can someone explain to me what would stop dems from infinitely fillibustering any of the Republicans bullshit laws if they got control, similar to how the Republicans have?

    AbidanYre,

    Gridlock doesn’t benefit Democrats like it does Republicans.

    Bonskreeskreeskree,

    How so?

    Jaysyn,
    @Jaysyn@kbin.social avatar

    It's easier to destroy than build.

    Cryophilia,

    Democrats run on a platform of “we want to do x, y, and z to make things better. Vote us in and we will do those things.”

    Republicans run on a platform of “we want to destroy things a, b, and c to make things better. Vote us in and we will destroy those things.”

    Filibustering helps destroy things. It does not help to build things.

    dojan,
    @dojan@lemmy.world avatar

    Presumably Project 2025.

    BraveSirZaphod,
    @BraveSirZaphod@kbin.social avatar

    Nothing, though the budget reconciliation process allows for one filibuster-proof bill a year if it primarily deals with the budget.

    That said, the filibuster is just an internal Senate rule. A majority could simply eliminate it at any time, but that of course may come back to bite them when the balance of power shifts.

    stoly,

    I don’t see this causing real problems. It would make the Senate more democratic if there were no fillibuster.

    OfficeMonkey,

    The Republicans will obliterate the fillibuster the day they want to, claiming the Democrats are forcing them to.

    Habahnow,

    That would honestly be great for Democrats long term, which Is why they wouldn’t do it.

    Bonskreeskreeskree,

    Don’t they need a super majority to do that?

    billiam0202,

    No, the filibuster is just a rule the Senate made up and it only takes a majority of the Senate to change their rules.

    stoly,

    The Constitution allows each chamber to set their own rules however they like. Just the barest majority is all that is required.

    Infynis,
    @Infynis@midwest.social avatar

    …respondents said that Trump would do a better job by double-digit margins.

    …in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 40 percent of voters said that Trump’s policies had helped them personally, while just 18 percent said the same of Biden.

    So these polls are just showing that Trump gets all the Republicans because they don’t actually care about policy, and Biden only gets a few Democrats because these questions are actually about issues, and his entire platform is that he isn’t Trump

    Maeve,

    All my life, I voted for the greater good of the greater whole, at my own expense. I am not a Biden fan and many who voted lockstep for the neolibs are most certainly voting on the issues.

    Conyak,

    That’s a pretty strong platform in my opinion. Trump is an extrema threat to all of us.

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